中国橡胶树大风、寒害的时空分布分析  

Temporal and spatial distribution analysis of gale damage and chilling injure of Hevea Brasiliensis in China

作　　者：佟金鹤 张卫红 刘少军[1,2] 李伟光[2,4] 陈小敏[2,4] TONG Jinhe;ZHANG Weihong;LIU Shaojun;LI Weiguang;CHEN Xiaomin(Institute of Meteorological Science of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China;Institute of Meteorological Science of Hebei Province Hebei 050000,China;Climate Center of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所,海口570203 [2]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口570203 [3]河北省气象科学研究所,石家庄050000 [4]海南省气候中心,海口570203

出　　处：《生态科学》2023年第2期43-48,共6页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41765007);国家自然科学基金项目(41465005);海南省自然基金项目(20154172)。

摘　　要：利用福建、广东、广西、云南、海南等五省份393个测站1984—2015年气温、日照、风速等气象要素,按照橡胶树大风灾害和寒害等级指标计算各台站逐年橡胶风寒害等级,分析风灾和寒害的平均状态,并使用MVEOF方法,分离寒害和大风灾害距平的主要模态及对应时间系数。结果显示:五省区域内橡胶树寒害影响区域广,除海南南部部分地区外,研究区域均可受到寒害影响。寒害强度和发生频率均高于大风灾害,以中度寒害为主,其中海南南部、东部的沿海地区及云南景洪、勐腊等测站平均寒害较轻;风害以轻度为主,主要发生在东南沿海及云南山区。风寒害距平MVEOF分析结果展示了风寒害的两种主要分布形式,第一模态寒害及风灾基本呈现全区域一致的偏强或偏弱,时间系数的正值(负值)对应了寒害整体偏强(偏弱)、风灾整体偏弱(偏强)的年份;第二模态时间系数均为正值,寒害在南部明显偏轻,风灾在雷州半岛、及东南沿海明显偏重。随着时间变化,第一模态时间系数下降,第二模态上升。上述研究表明,我国橡胶树寒害的发生具有空间一致偏强(偏弱)的特征,其风险大于风灾;广东、广西、福建寒害较重,海南和云南南部寒害较轻。风灾分布空间差异性较大,海南和雷州半岛等东南沿海地区是风灾较重的区域。研究时段内寒害整体减轻,风再在其高发区加重。In order to analyze the distribution and changes of Hevea brasiliensis’gale damage and chilling injure in Fujian,Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan and Hainan Province,the meteorological elements such as temperature,sunshine duration and wind speed from 1984 to 2015 were used to calculate the disaster grade by relevant index and multivariate EOF analysis.The results showed that most of the study area except southern Hainan Island could be affected by chilling injure.The intensity and frequency of the Hevea brasiliensis,chilling injury in study were higher than that of gale damage.The chilling injure degree was mainly moderate and was less severe in eastern and southern coastal area in Hainan Island and Jinghong and Mengla in Yunnan Province,while the gale damage was mainly mild and mainly occurred in the southeast coast area and the mountainous areas of Yunnan.The gale damage had significant spatial diversity as the spatial difference of chilling injure was relatively low.MVEOF analysis of gale damage and chilling injure’s anomalies showed two significant modes,while the two disasters changed similarly in space in the first mode which was 41.53%variance contribution and the second mode had a variance contribution of 15.1%with a time coefficients always positive.The chilling injure was less severe in the south,and the gale damage was more severe in Leizhou Peninsula and the southeast coast in the second mode when compared with the first one by both anomalies distribution and time coefficients sequence.The change of MVEOF time coefficient showed that the first mode became unconspicuous and the second mode changed to be more representative which could come to the conclusion that the chilling injure was reduced and the gale damage increased in its high incidence zone during the study period.

关 键 词：橡胶树 大风灾害 寒害 MVEOF 时间系数 

分 类 号：S749.1[农业科学—林学]