灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型在青海省碘盐监测中的应用初探  

Application of Grey System Theory GM(1,1) Model in Iodized Salt Monitoring in Qinghai Province

作　　者：王明君 WANG Ming-jun(Department of Endemic Disease Prevention and Control,Qinghai Institute for Endemic Disease Prevention and Control,Xining 810000,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省地方病预防控制所地方病预防控制科,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《医学信息》2023年第2期24-27,共4页Journal of Medical Information

摘　　要：目的 通过建立灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,预测青海省2012年碘盐监测指标,初步探索灰色系统理论在青海省碘盐监测及碘缺乏病防治中的应用。方法 采用数学建模的方法,利用《中国碘盐监测》(1996-2011)青海省2004-2011年碘盐监测工作总结中的数据资料,对碘盐监测各指标建立灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,并预测2012年相关指标数据。结果 非碘盐率P值为0.835,C值为0.111,拟合效果为2级合格;碘盐覆盖率P值为0.992,C值为0.009,拟合标准为1级好;碘盐合格率P值为0.995,C值为0.006,拟合效果为1级好;合格碘盐食用率P值为0.987,C值为0.014,拟合效果为1级好。2012年非碘盐率预测值为1.87%;碘盐覆盖率预测值为98.87%;碘盐合格率预测值为96.99%;合格碘盐食用率预测值为96.07%。结论 非碘盐率理论预测值呈下降趋势,碘盐覆盖率、碘盐合格率以及合格碘盐食用率理论预测值呈上升趋势。通过建立灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型可从理论上预测碘盐相关指标的升降及波动情况,从而及时采取相应措施,指导科学补碘。Objective To establish the grey system theory GM(1,1) model to predict the monitoring index of iodized salt in Qinghai Province in 2012,and to explore the application of grey system theory in the monitoring of iodized salt and the prevention and treatment of iodine deficiency disorders in Qinghai Province.Methods The gray system theory GM(1,1) model was established using mathematical modeling methods and data from a 2004-2011iodized salt monitoring work summary for Qinghai Province in China Iodized Salt Monitoring(1996-2011) to predict the relevant indicators for 2012.Results The P-value for the non-iodized salt rate was 0.835, the C-value was 0.111, and the fitting effect was level 2;the P-value for the iodized salt coverage rate was 0.992, the C-value was 0.009, and the fitting effect was qualified for level 1;the P-value for qualified iodized salt rate was0.995, the C-value for that was 0.006, and the fitting effect was level 1;the P-value for the iodized salt qualified utilization rate was 0.987, the Cvalue was 0.014, and the fitting effect was level 1. The predicted value of the non-iodized salt rate in 2012 was 1.87%, the predicted value of the iodized salt coverage rate was 98.87%, the predicted value of the qualified iodized salt rate was 96.99%, and the predicted value of the qualified iodized salt utilization rate was 96.07%.Conclusion The theoretical prediction value of non iodized salt rate showed a downward trend, while the theoretical prediction values of iodized salt coverage, qualified rate of iodized salt and consumption rate of qualified iodized salt showed an upward trend. By establishing the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory, the rise and fall and fluctuation of iodized salt related indexes can be predicted theoretically, so as to take corresponding measures in time and guide scientific iodine supplementation.

关 键 词：碘盐监测 灰色系统理论 GM(1 1)模型 碘缺乏病 

分 类 号：R599[医药卫生—内科学]