重塑全球能源格局的2022  

2022: reshaping the global energy landscape

作　　者：孙贤胜 单卫国[2] 高振宇[2] 程熙琼 石洪宇 SUN Xiansheng;SHAN Weiguo;GAO Zhenyu;CHENG Xiqiong;SHI Hongyu(The International Society for Energy Transition Studies,ISETS;CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]国际能源转型研究会 [2]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第1期24-30,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2022年,新冠病毒疫情严重冲击全球供应链,通货膨胀高企,大国博弈加剧。乌克兰危机重塑全球油气市场格局:全球原油贸易流向发生巨大变化,呈现俄罗斯原油出口流向“西降东升”,美国、中东和非洲原油出口流向“西升东降”的特点;国际油价大幅波动,预计2022年布伦特原油均价为99美元/桶左右;欧洲天然气TTF价格替代东北亚现货价格成为世界LNG价格高位引领者,世界LNG流向快速从亚洲转向欧洲,欧洲能源转型回归现实使得LNG重要性提升,天然气价格飙升导致煤炭与核能重新得到重视。乌克兰危机导致的地缘政治格局动荡对全球能源安全、产业链和供应链稳定造成严重冲击,对中国能源安全带来严峻挑战。《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十七次缔约方大会(COP27)进一步就能源绿色低碳转型与能源安全达成共识,全球气候合作进入落实的关键阶段。In 2022, COVID-19 severely hit the global supply chain, with high inflation and intensified game among major countries. The Ukraine issue reshaped the global oil and gas market, the global crude oil trade flows changed dramatically,presenting the characteristics of “west falling east rising” in Russia and “west rising east falling” in the United States, the Middle East and Africa. International oil prices fluctuated wildly, with Brent crude price expected to average around $99 per barrel in 2022. European TTF price has replaced the spot price in Northeast Asia and become the world’s leader in LNG prices. The world’s LNG flows rapidly shifted from Asia to Europe, the return of reality of Europe’s energy transition has increased the importance of LNG, and soaring natural gas prices led to a renewed focus on coal and nuclear power. The geopolitical turmoil caused by the Ukraine issue has severely impacted global energy security, the stability of industrial and supply chains, posing a severe challenge to China’s energy security. The 27thConference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP27) further reached consensus on green and low-carbon energy transition and energy security, which means that global climate cooperation entered a crucial stage of implementation.

关 键 词：原油贸易 原油价格 天然气价格 可再生能源 能源转型 能源安全 COP27 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]