基于投入产出法的中国房地产业定位  

Positioning of China’s real estate industry based on the input-output method

作　　者：张红[1,2] 毕志军 于安淼 ZHANG Hong;BI Zhijun;YU Anmiao(Center for Urbanization and Industrial Development,School of Civil Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Hang Lung Center for Real Estate,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木水利学院,城镇化与产业发展研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期153-159,共7页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

摘　　要：为分析房地产业在国民经济中的作用,该文以投入产出法为基础构建产业定位判别矩阵,利用2007、 2012、 2017及2018年的投入产出表数据,对房地产业进行产业定位与比较。研究结果表明:中国房地产业是国民经济的基础产业;2007至2018年,房地产业的产业关联度、带动能力、对经济及就业的贡献度虽有所提高但总体水平偏低;与上下游产业相比,房地产业与金融业的功能定位有较高的相似性。该文建议,制定针对房地产业的调控政策时,应充分考虑房地产业的基础产业性质及产业关联广泛的特点,防范房地产业与金融业的功能过分重叠,以促进房地产业长效健康发展。[Objective] In 2003, the State Council of China identified the real estate industry as a pillar of the national economy. However, with economic development and the distribution of the nation’s industrial structure, the status of real estate as a pillar industry has repeatedly been questioned. Researchers have conducted extensive studies on the positioning of the real estate industry in China but are yet to reach a consensus. Different understandings of the industrial categories and the selection of varying discrimination indicators are the primary reasons for these conflicting results. Referencing previous research, this study combines classical industrial economics theory with the input-output method to identify and compare the industrial positioning of the real estate industry for a reasonable judgment on the status and role of the real estate industry in the national economy. Considering the current economic transformation, it is imperative to determine the positioning of the real estate industry for formulating effective macro-control policies and for developing the real estate industry. [Methods] This study employs the input-output method. Recently, although the literature regarding the application of the input-output method to the real estate industry in China is gradually increasing, minimal systematic studies focus on the question of industrial positioning. This study first determines the features and characteristics of various categories under industrial positioning. Subsequently, it combines the findings with the input-output method and establishes the discriminant matrix from three perspectives: industrial correlation, industrial spillover effect, and economic contribution;the required coefficients are determined using merged input-output flow tables from 2007 to 2018. Finally, according to the discrimination matrix and each input-output coefficient, the industrial positioning of the real estate industry is determined and compared with the construction, financial, and leasing and business service ind

关 键 词：房地产业 投入产出法 产业定位 基础产业 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]