1928年至1929年中国东部的严重干旱  

Severe drought in Eastern China from 1928 to 1929

作　　者：黎永杰 张仲石 徐天澳 LI Yongjie;ZHANG Zhongshir;XU Tiglanao(Department of Atmospheric Science,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430070,Hubei;School of Geographical Sciences,Nantong University,Nantong 226019,Jiangsu)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院大气科学系,湖北武汉430070 [2]南通大学地理科学学院,江苏南通226019

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2023年第1期131-143,共13页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“全球变化与应对”专项项目(批准号:2018YFA0605602)资助。

摘　　要：1928~1929年夏季,中国北方(34°~45°N,106°~122°E)和华南(20°~30°N,106°~122°E)地区遭受了严重的干旱,此次旱灾是中国近代十大灾荒之一。由于早期观测资料缺乏,数值模拟成为研究此次旱灾形成机制的重要手段。本研究诊断分析了挪威地球系统模式(NorESM1-F)过去千年试验中1928年和1929年的模拟。结果表明:模拟的1928年与1929年夏季中国东部季风区旱涝空间分布与历史记录重建非常相似;即1928年夏季,降雨集中在长江与黄河之间,而1929年夏季,降雨集中在长江中下游;其他地区降雨偏少。重建和观测资料证实NorESM1-F能够较好地模拟中高纬海表面温度异常;同时,模拟结果显示,这两年夏季北大西洋高纬地区以及北美西海岸的海表面温度偏高是造成这两年干旱的控制因素之一。它激发出影响东亚夏季降水的遥相关波列。1928年夏季,明显的正位相欧亚遥相关,导致东亚大槽加深、西太平洋副热带高压南撤、东亚夏季风减弱,并最终导致1928年夏季降水异常减少;而1929年夏季,中纬度的丝绸之路遥相关波列(SRP)使200hPa南亚高压加强东伸、中国东部沿海地区出现正位势高度异常、西太平洋副热带高压西伸,导致长江流域降雨增多,中国北方和华南地区降雨减少。In the summer of 1928 and 1929,Northern(34°~45°N,106°~122°E)and Southern(20°~30°N,106°~122°E)China suffered from a severe drought.The mechanism of this drought remains unclear due to the lack of early observational data.However,numerical simulation has become an important method to investigate the mechanism behind.Here,we analyzed the last millennium experiment conducted with the fast version of the Norwegian Earth System Model(NorESM1-F),tree ring records from the west coast of North America,observed temperature from Greenland,and Palmer Drought Index from Climatic Research Unit.Our simulation showed that the rainfall remarkably reduced in the south of the Yangtze River and north of the Yellow River in 1928,and significantly decreased in Southern China and Northern China in 1929.The simulated spatial distribution of drought agreed well with historical records in the monsoon region of Eastern China.Furthermore,NorESM1-F well simulated the sea surface temperature anomalies in the middle and high latitudes,inconsistent with the tree ring records from the west coast of North America,as well as the observed temperature data from Greenland.The relatively high sea surface temperature occurred in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and the west coast of North America in the summer of 1928 and 1929,possibly stimulating the teleconnection wave train that affected the summer precipitation in East Asia.In the summer of 1928,a positive phase of Eurasian teleconnection contributed to the deepening of the East Asian trough,the southward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High,and the weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon,thus eventually leading to an abnormal decrease in precipitation in the south of the Yangtze River and north of the Yellow River.In the summer of 1929,a Silk Road teleconnection wave train in the mid-latitudes,caused the eastward positioning of the South Asia High,the positive height anomaly over the coastal areas of Eastern China,as well the westward extension of the Western Pacific Su

关 键 词：干旱 海表面温度异常 遥相关 西太平洋副热带高压 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]