玉溪市2010—2019年流感流行特征与发病趋势预测  

Epidemiological Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Influenza in Yuxi City from 2010 to 2019

作　　者：倪兆林[1] 左顺武[1] 刘红雁[1] 艾志琼 农璐铭 赵秋芳 吴强[1] Ni Zhaolin;Zuo Shunwu;Liu Hongyan;Ai Zhiqiong;Nong Luming;Zhao Qiufang;Wu Qiang(Yuxi Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Yuxi,Yunnan 653100,China;Dali University,Dali,Yunnan 671000,China)

机构地区：[1]玉溪市疾病预防控制中心,云南玉溪653100 [2]大理大学,云南大理671000

出　　处：《大理大学学报》2023年第2期78-83,共6页Journal of Dali University

摘　　要：目的:分析玉溪市2010—2019年流感的流行特征,建立自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测流感发病趋势。方法:采用描述性流行病学方法进行数据统计分析,用SPSS 25.0软件建立ARIMA模型。结果:玉溪市共检测流感样病例9925例,检出核酸阳性2849例,阳性率为28.71%,流感阳性病例数大体上呈逐年上升趋势,平均增长速度为2.01%;流感阳性病例中,男女比为1.25∶1,5~14岁儿童占比最高(占40.86%)。流感具有较强的季节性(集中度为0.60)。各年度优势流感病毒株逐年变化,2010年和2018年以A/H1N1 pdm为主,2011年和2012年以B/Victoria为主,2013年和2016年以B/Yamagata为主,2015年和2017年以A/H3N2为主,2014年以B/Yamagata和A/H1N1 pdm为主,2019年以B/Victoria和A/H3N2为主。最佳预测模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12),其标准化BIC值为5.873,Ljung-Box Q为21.258,P=0.169,预测值和实际值均在95%置信区间内,平均相对误差为10.14%,利用该模型预测2020年1—6月流感发病呈下降趋势。结论:玉溪市流感具有较强季节性且流感阳性病例数大体上呈逐年上升趋势,优势流感毒株逐年变化,ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)模型可以有效地预测玉溪市短期流感发病趋势。Objective:To analyze the epidemicological characteristics of influenza in Yuxi city from 2010 to 2019,and to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict the trend of influenza incidence.Methods:The data of influenza was analyzed by descriptive epidemiological methods,and the ARIMA model was established by SPSS 25.0 software.Results:A total of 9925 influenza-like cases were detected in Yuxi influenza network laboratory,and 2849 nucleic acid positive cases were detected,with a positive rate of 28.71%.The nucleic acid positive cases showed an upward trend year by year in general,with an average increment speed of 2.01%.Among influenza positive cases,the ratio of male to female was 1.25∶1,and children aged 5-14 accounted for the highest proportion(40.86%).Influenza had a strong seasonality(concentration was 0.60).The dominant influenza virus strains changed year by year.In 2010 and 2018,A/H1N1 pdm was dominant;in 2011 and 2012,B/Victoria was dominant;in 2013 and 2016,B/Yamagata was dominant;and in 2015 and 2017,A/H3N2 was dominant;in 2014,B/Yamagata and A/H1N1 pdm dominated,and in 2019,B/Victoria and A/H3N2 dominated.The best prediction model was ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12),whose standardized BIC value was 5.873,Ljung-Box Q was 21.258,P was 0.169.The actual values of the prediction results were within the 95%confidence interval(95%CI)of the predicted value,and the average relative error was 10.14%.The model was used to predict a decreasing trend of influenza incidence from January to June in 2020.Conclusion:The influenza in Xuyi city has obvious seasonality and the nucleic acid positive cases show an upward trend year by year in general,and the dominant influenza strains change year by year.ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)model can effectively predict the trend of short-term influenza in Yuxi city.

关 键 词：流感 集中度 动态数列 自回归综合移动平均模型 

分 类 号：R512.57[医药卫生—内科学]