基于城市尺度的中国能源强度时空差异及演进特征  

Temporal and Spatial Differences and Evolution Characteristics of China′s Energy Intensity Based on Prefecture-level City Scale

作　　者：刘琦璐 程开明[1] 庄燕杰[1] LIU Qilu;CHENG Kaiming;ZHUANG Yanjie(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2023年第3期57-66,共10页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国城镇化阶段性特征统计测度及驱动效应评估研究”(20&ZD133);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“网络场域下税收竞争与环境污染:作用机理、效应估计及治理对策研究”(19YJCZH281);浙江省重点建设高校优势特色学科(浙江工商大学统计学)资助项目“长三角城市全要素能源效率时空演进及其影响因素研究”。

摘　　要：文章基于降尺度能源平衡表估算2003—2019年我国城市能源消费量,采用Dagum基尼系数和空间马尔科夫链解析城市能源强度的时空差异及演进特征。结果表明:我国城市能源强度持续下降,变动态势呈现出空间集聚特征,其中资源型城市能源强度下降较快但仍有较大节能潜力;城市能源强度存在明显的空间分异,其变动趋势具有显著的阶段性特征,而地区间差异为总体差异的主要来源;城市能源强度类型的“马太效应”突出,低能源强度城市存在先发优势“惯性”,高能源强度城市则存在路径依赖和锁定效应,城市能源强度类型的转换受到相邻城市类型的影响。Based on the downscaling energy balance table,this paper estimates the city energy consumption in China from 2003 to 2019,and uses Dagum Gini coefficient and spatial Markov chain to analyze the spatial and temporal differences and evolution characteristics of city energy intensity.The results show that the energy intensity of China's cities continues to decline,and the trend of change shows the characteristics of spatial agglomeration.Among them,the energy intensity of resource-based cities has decreased rapidly,but still has great energy saving potential;there is obvious spatial difference in city energy intensity,and its change trend has obvious phased characteristics,and the regional difference is the main source of the overall difference;the“Matthew effect”of city energy intensity types is prominent.Cities with low energy intensity have first-mover advantage“inertia”,while cities with high energy intensity have path dependence and locking effect.The transformation of city energy intensity types is affected by the types of neighboring cities.

关 键 词：能源平衡表 能源消费量 能源强度 Dagum基尼系数 空间马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F426.2