新一代信息技术对劳动力结构调整的影响研究——基于中国三大产业劳动力份额变动的视角  

Research on the Impact of New Generation of Information Technology on Adjustment of Labor Structure:Based on the Perspective of Labor Share Changes in China′s Three Major Industries

作　　者：徐伟呈[1,2] 魏宁康 王潇 XU Weicheng;WEI Ningkang;WANG Xiao(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2023年第3期95-106,共12页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“人民币国际化视角下我国汇率对就业和工资影响的机理、量化与预测研究”(18CJY008);山东省社会科学规划研究项目“‘互联网+’背景下山东省产业结构优化升级研究”(17DJJJ01);青岛市哲学社会科学规划项目“数字金融驱动下青岛市经济高质量发展的机理、效应与政策优化研究”(QDSKL2101029)。

摘　　要：文章采用1978—2019年中国劳动力市场实际数据进行参数校准,探究新一代信息技术进步对中国劳动力结构调整的影响。研究发现:基准模型能够较好地刻画自改革开放以来中国三大产业劳动力结构变迁的动态特征;稳健性检验表明,市场结构扭曲和生产结构差异对劳动力份额变动的影响作用有限;反事实实验结果显示,新一代信息技术进步会加速中国劳动力份额的调整进程,新一代信息技术进步空间的提升和其在三大产业中渗透率的提高会促进中国劳动力结构优化,其显著特征为第一产业劳动力份额显著下降,而第二产业劳动力份额则随着第三产业劳动力份额持续上升呈“驼峰型”变动趋势。The actual data of China's labor market from 1978 to 2019 are used for parameter calibration to explore the impact of the new generation of information technology progress on China's labor structural adjustment.It is found that the benchmark model can better describe the dynamic characteristics of the changes in the labor structure of China's three major industries since the reform and opening up;the robustness test shows that the distortion of market structure and the difference of production structure have limited influence on the change of labor share;the counterfactual experiment results show that the progress of the new generation of information technology will accelerate the adjustment process of China's labor force share,and the improvement of the space for the progress of the new generation of information technology and its penetration in the three major industries will promote the optimization of China's labor force structure,which is characterized by a significant decline in the labor force share of the first industry,while the labor force share of the second industry will show a“hump”trend with the continuous rise of the labor force share of the third industry.

关 键 词：新一代信息技术 劳动力结构 技术进步 技术渗透率 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F49[经济管理—国民经济]