变化环境下可能最大洪水计算研究  

Calculation of Probable Maximum Flood in Changing Environment

作　　者：刘甜 梁忠民[2] 金路熠 王士武 温进化 王贺龙 LIU Tian;LIANG Zhong-min;JIN Lu-yi;WANG Shi-wu;WEN Jin-hua;WANG He-long(Zhejiang Institute of Hydraulics&Estuary(Zhejiang Institute of Marine Planning and Design),Hangzhou 310020,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;ZhejiangWaterConserv ncy Information&Publicity Center,Hangzhou 310009,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省水利河口研究院(浙江省海洋规划设计研究院),浙江杭州310020 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]浙江省水利信息宣传中心,浙江杭州310009

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第1期68-72,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(2019YFC0408805);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41730750)。

摘　　要：气候变化与下垫面变化前提下,多因素共同影响明显增加了流域可能最大洪水(PMF)估算难度。为此,提出一种集气候模式结果后处理、气候变化情景下相应可能最大暴雨(PMP)估算及土地利用/覆被变化方案设定、基流/前期影响雨量影响分析、基于相似性的PMP时空展布于一体的PMF计算模式,将其应用于怒江上游。结果表明,基流/前期影响雨量及暴雨时空分布不确定性是影响流域PMF的重要因素,气候与下垫面变化双重驱动对于PMF影响较大,且变幅随着变化程度增强而增大。Under the influence of climate change and land use/land cover(LULC) change, the combined influence of multiple factors has significantly increased the difficulty of probable maximum flood(PMF) estimation. A PMF estimation framework was proposed, integrating post-processing of climate model results, probable maximum precipitation(PMP) estimation and future LULC change setting under climate change scenarios, impact analysis of base flow/antecedent rainfall, and similarity-based PMP spatio-temporal distribution. This new framwork was applied to the Upper Nujiang River Basin. The results show that the uncertainty of base flow/antecedent rainfall and PMP spatio-temporal distribution are important factors affecting PMF for basins, and the dual-drive of climate change and LULC change has a greater impact on PMF, and the amplitude of change increases with the degree of change.

关 键 词：可能最大洪水 可能最大暴雨 气候变化 土地利用/覆被变化 基流/前期影响雨量 怒江上游 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]