积极应对人口老龄化 促进居民消费:理论与对策  

Proactively Respond to Population Aging and Promote Consumer Consumption:Theory and Countermeasures

作　　者：于宝鑫 费威[1] YU Baoxin;FEI Wei(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance&Economics,Dalian 116025,Liaoning Province,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《老龄科学研究》2022年第12期12-23,共12页Scientific Research on Aging

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于大数据计量方法的中国人口政策评估与优化研究”(72273019)。

摘　　要：扩大内需是畅通国内国际双循环的战略节点。目前居民消费不足问题仍是构建国内经济大循环的一个主要障碍,而人口老龄化是导致居民消费下降的一个重要原因。介绍了中国人口老龄化的特征,解释了人口老龄化如何通过人口规模效应、人口年龄结构效应和收入分配效应使居民消费下降。根据这些理论,在人口老龄化背景下,我国促进消费增长面临的主要问题有生育率低、银发经济发展滞后、青年人口的消费潜力未充分释放、农村地区人口外流和贫富差距大等。因此,当前政策着力点应放在提高生育率、深化供给侧结构性改革、加强需求侧管理和减少收入不平等上。Expanding domestic demand is a strategic node for unblocking the domestic and overseas dual circulation. Currently underconsumption is still a major barrier to the domestic cycle, for which population aging is an important reason. This paper introduced characteristics of China’s population aging, and explained how population aging could reduce residents’ consumption through the effects of population size, demographic age structure and income distribution. According to these theories,main problems of China in promoting consumption against the background of population aging include low fertility rate, lagging development of silver economy, insufficient release of young people’s consumption potential, population outflow from rural areas and the large gap between rich and poor.Therefore, the government should now focus on improving the fertility rate, deepening supply-side structural reform, strengthening demand-side management and reducing income inequality.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人口年龄结构 居民消费不足 收入分配 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]