海上风电制氢经济评价模型及关键影响参数  

Economic evaluation model of offshore wind to hydrogen and its key influence parameters

作　　者：张岑 魏华 庄妍 欧阳琰 ZHANG Cen;WEI Hua;ZHUANG Yan;OUYANG Yan(CNOOC Energy Economics Institute,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海油集团能源经济研究院,100013

出　　处：《天然气工业》2023年第2期146-154,共9页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：全球绿色低碳转型正在加速,多国聚焦可再生能源制氢技术,大力培育绿氢产业。其中海上风电制氢技术具有项目规模大、产能优势明显、毗邻水源地、制氢原料充足等优势,越来越受到各国的关注,但过去对该技术方案经济性的研究多局限于欧洲区域,结论具有局限性。为此,以中国广东省海域某海上风电项目为例,按照输电方式、售电比例、制/输氢技术等设计了5种方案,并计算了不同方案的项目内部收益率(IRR)和平准化制氢成本(LCOH),进而剖析了风场规模、离岸距离、制氢技术、氢气售价等多个敏感性因素对关键指标的影响程度。研究结果表明:(1)离岸距离是决定项目开发方案的关键因素,当离岸距离小于100 km时,采用交流输电技术的并网发电方案IRR最高,当离岸距离超过150 km时,离网制氢方案IRR整体更优;(2)对比不同离网制氢方案,海上制氢配合专用管道输氢模式,无论在IRR还是LCOH方面始终优于岸上制氢模式,两者的经济性差距随离岸距离的缩小而收窄。结论认为,提升项目规模、提高氢气售价、减少或不使用储氢设施以及采用碱性电解槽可以大幅提升海上风电制氢项目的经济性,使LCOH低于22.5元/kg,基本具备市场竞争条件。As global green and low-carbon transformation is accelerating, many countries focus on hydrogen production technologies from renewable energy and vigorously cultivate green hydrogen industry, among which, the offshore wind to hydrogen technology attracts increasing attention due to its advantages such as large project scale, significant production capacity, close to water source and sufficient raw materials for hydrogen production. In literature, the economic studies on the offshore wind to hydrogen technology are mostly limited to European regions, and hence the corresponding findings have their limitations. Taking an offshore wind power project in the sea area of Guangdong province as an example, this paper proposes five development patterns based on power transmission mode,share of electricity sold to the grid, and hydrogen production/transportation technology, and calculates their internal rate of return(IRR)and levelized cost of hydrogen(LCOH). Then, sensitivity analysis of key influence factors are conducted, including wind farm scale,distance to shore, hydrogen production technology, and hydrogen sale price. And the following research results are obtained. First, the distance to shore is a determining factor for selecting the project development pattern. When the distance to shore is shorter than 100 km,the grid-connected generation scheme using AC transmission technology has the highest IRR. When the distance to shore is longer than 150 km, off-grid hydrogen production scheme is overall the best in IRR. Second, it is shown by comparing different hydrogen production patterns that the offshore hydrogen production mode with designated hydrogen transportation pipeline is superior to the onshore hydrogen production mode in terms of IRR and LCOH, and the economic difference between both modes narrows with the decrease of the distance to shore. In conclusion, increasing project scale, hydrogen sale price, reducing or excluding hydrogen storage facility, and employing alkaline electrolyser can significantly enhan

关 键 词：中国 氢能 海上风电 电解水制氢 经济性评价 影响因素 项目内部收益率 平准化制氢成本 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TQ116.2[化学工程—无机化工]