风起吹皱水:美联储加息如何影响我国汇率和跨境资本流动  

An Assessment of the Spillover Effects of Fed Rate Hikes on China’s Exchange Rate and Cross-Border Capital Flows

作　　者：郁人杰 王大贤[2] 

机构地区：[1]悉尼大学商学院 [2]国家外汇管理局山西省分局

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2023年第1期117-124,共8页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：本文剖析了美联储历史上六个加息周期的背景及特征、本轮加息特殊性及市场反应,研究了美联储加息对新兴经济体的影响及外溢影响渠道。随着我国金融开放程度的提升,美联储持续加息对人民币汇率和跨境资金流动的压力增大,需要积极妥善应对。本文深入分析了美联储本轮加息外溢效应及对我国的影响,在此基础上了提出了相关政策建议。This paper analyzes the background and characteristics of the six interest rate hike cycles in the history of the Federal Reserve. It gives special attention to the latest round of the Fed’s interest rate hikes and the market reaction, examining the impact of the rate increases on emerging economies and the areas that play a role in the transmission of spillover effects. With the improvement of China’s financial openness, the Fed’s continuous interest rate hikes have increased pressure on the renminbi exchange rate and cross-border capital flows. This needs to be properly addressed in an active manner. This paper analyzes the spillover effect of the current round of Fed interest rate hikes and the impact on China. It also offers relevant policy suggestions on dealing with this phenomenon.

关 键 词：美联储加息 外溢效应 人民币汇率 跨境资金流动 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F827.12