不确定性冲击、信贷资源错配与货币财政政策效果  

Uncertainty Shocks,Credit Resource Misallocation and Monetary and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness

作　　者：王义中[1,2] 郑博文 邬介然 Wang Yizhong;Zheng Bowen;Wu Jieran

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院 [2]浙江大学金融研究院

出　　处：《世界经济》2023年第2期3-30,共28页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(19BJL093);国家自科基金专项项目(72141305);中宣部宣传思想文化青年英才项目的资助。

摘　　要：信贷资源错配是金融与实体经济发展不协调的重要表现,而不确定性冲击会加大错配的程度。本文基于中国典型事实构建多部门一般均衡模型,讨论不确定性冲击作用于信贷资源配置的机制。研究发现:(1)不确定性冲击上升会影响银行对于风险的认知和判断,使得银行权衡高低生产率企业之间的风险等信贷需求方因素,导致其信贷供给行为在两类企业间存在着差异,进而使不确定性冲击产生信贷资源配置效应;(2)面对不确定性冲击,实施扩张性货币政策的效果有限,通过结构性财政政策实施担保和救助能够有效增强商业银行的放贷意愿,改善高风险企业的信贷可获得性,改善投融资预期,缓解信贷资源错配程度。Credit resource misallocation is a significant symptom of financial and real economic mismatch.Uncertainty shocks make this problem even worse.Based on empirical facts,this paper constructs a multisectoral general equilibrium model to investigate the mechanisms and effects of uncertainty shocks on credit resource allocation.The study reveals that(1)A rise in uncertainty shocks affects banks’ability to recognize and judge risk,leading to banks trading off credit demand factors between high-and low-productivity firms.Consequently,their credit supply behavior differs between the two types of firms,resulting in a different allocation of credit resources in response to uncertainty shocks;(2)in response to uncertainty shocks,the effect of implementing expansionary monetary policy is limited,while implementing structural fiscal policy tools of guarantees and bailouts can effectively enhance commercial banks’intention to lend,improve credit availability for high-risk enterprises,effectively improve investment and financing anticipation,and mitigate the degree of credit resource mismatch.

关 键 词：不确定性冲击 公司风险异质性 信贷资源错配 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F822.0F812.0