盟主国声誉、安全依赖与冲突爆发  

Ally's Reputation,Security Dependence and Conflict Initiation

作　　者：李冲 漆海霞[1] Li Chong;Qi Haixia(the Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2023年第2期27-59,156,共34页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：盟主国声誉的作用是联盟研究关注的重要议题,然而盟主国的声誉究竟会提升其盟国挑起冲突的可能性还是会降低这类冲突风险,目前尚无定论。针对该问题,作者提出安全依赖对盟主国声誉的调节作用理论。如果盟国对盟主国的安全依赖程度较低,盟主国的声誉主要发挥纵容效应:盟主国的声誉越好,盟国对于获得盟主国支持的预期越高,其挑起冲突的可能性也越高。如果盟国对盟主国的安全依赖程度较高,盟主国声誉越好,自身被牵连的风险就越高。此时盟主国会对盟国采取约束措施,盟主国声誉主要发挥约束效应:盟主国的声誉越好,盟国挑起冲突的可能性越低。该理论还表明,声誉对不同烈度的冲突会产生不同影响:对于“威胁使用武力”和“展示武力”这类烈度较低的冲突,无论盟国对盟主国的安全依赖程度如何,盟主国的声誉始终对冲突爆发起纵容效应。而对于高烈度冲突,只有当盟国对盟主国的安全依赖较低时,盟主国的声誉才会起纵容效应;当盟国对盟主国的安全依赖程度较高时,盟主国的声誉主要发挥约束效应。作者基于1816-2000年的联盟与冲突数据应用logit模型分析了盟主国声誉、安全依赖程度和冲突爆发三者之间的关系,验证了安全依赖对盟主国声誉的调节作用,并针对交互效应、模型设定、异质性分析和变量测量等进行了稳健性检验。上述发现有助于发掘联盟理论中声誉与冲突的深层机制以及解释当前国际体系中低烈度冲突频发的现象。The puzzle of this study is why ally's reputation embolden member states to initiate conflicts in some alliances but restrain members in others.Existing theories show that both defensive ally and good reputation can reduce the risk of conflict,but we find the result is confusing when considering two variables at the same time.Based on Military Interstate Disputes Data(MID)from 1816 to 2000,we have analyzed the relationshipp among reputation,security dependence degree and conflicts,,and have found that reputation's function on conflicts is affected by the security dependence of ally members.If security dependence degree is low,the ally's reputation will enhance conflicts.The better the reputation is,the higher the risk of conflicts will be.If the security dependence degree is high,reputation will mainly show restraining effect.The ally will prevent its members from initiating conflicts.We also find reputation's function varies in different levels of conflicts.For low-intensity conflicts,such as"threat to use force"or"display force",the marginal effect of the ally's reputation always increases.For high-intensity conflicts,good reputation will accelerate conflicts only when the security dependence degree is low and decrease the risk of conflicts if the degree is high.These findings are contributing to the casual mechanism about reputation and conflicts in alliance theory.

关 键 词：声誉 联盟困境 安全依赖 约束效应 国际冲突 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]