西南某特高心墙堆石坝溃坝概率研究  

Research on the Dam Failure Probability of an Extra-high Core Rockfill Dam in Southwest China

作　　者：李大成 张露澄 马黎 钟启明[2,3] 吴迪 LI Dacheng;ZHANG Lucheng;MA Li;ZHONG Qiming;WU Di(PowerChina Guiyang Engineering Corporation Limited,Guiyang 550081,Guizhou,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China;Key Laboratory of Reservoir and Dam Safety of the Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司,贵州贵阳550081 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部水库大坝安全重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水力发电》2023年第3期46-51,91,共7页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金重点支持项目(U2040221)。

摘　　要：针对我国西南地区拟建的某特高心墙堆石坝,基于工程资料分析得到了大坝风险要素,采用FMECA法分析确定了大坝主要溃坝模式为漫顶溃坝和渗透破坏溃坝,其中,漫顶溃坝有5种溃坝路径,渗透破坏溃坝有3种溃坝路径;利用事件树法计算这8种溃坝路径的溃坝概率,最终计算得到综合溃坝概率。该计算结果可为编制应急预案和工程建成投运后的突发事件监测预警及应急处置提供科学依据。Aiming at an extra-high core rockfill dam to be built in Southwest China,the dam risk factors are obtained based on the analysis of its engineering data,and the main dam failure modes are determined by FMECA method as overtopping failure and seepage failure.The overtopping failure and seepage failure have five and three failure paths respectively.The dam failure probabilities of these eight failure paths are calculated by event tree method,and the comprehensive dam failure probability is finally calculated.The results can provide a scientific basis for making the relevant emergency response plan as well as the monitoring and early-warning of the sudden event and the emergency treatment after the completion and operation of the project.

关 键 词：特高心墙堆石坝 风险要素 FMECA法 溃坝模式 溃坝路径 事件树 溃坝概率 

分 类 号：TV641.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]