中国省级包容性财富指数估算:2010—2020  

Estimation of China's Provincial Inclusive Wealth Index:2010-2020

作　　者：孙金良 李钢[2] 刘吉超[3] SUN Jinliang;LI Gang;LIU Jichao(Guizhou Academy of Social Science,Guiyang 550002;Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS,Beijing 100006;State Information Center,Beijing 100045)

机构地区：[1]贵州省社会科学院国家治理体系和治理能力现代化地方实践高端智库,贵州贵阳550002 [2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100006 [3]国家信息中心,北京100045

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2023年第1期3-20,共18页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“包容性绿色增长的理论与实践研究”(19ZDA048);中国社会科学院重大经济社会调查项目“包容性绿色发展跟踪调查(IGDS)”(GQDC2022019)。

摘　　要：采用教育成本法、永续盘存法、预期收益折算法等方法对2010—2020年历年分省份的人力资本、生产性资本、生产性自然资本和非生产性自然资本进行量化估算,测算并分析包容性财富及其结构。通过对包容性财富的分析发现:2010—2020年全国和各省份包容性财富和人均包容性财富都实现了增长,但各省份发展不均衡,各省份包容性财富和人均包容性财富差距仍比较大,且包容性财富差距仍在持续扩大,但人均包容性财富的差距却在缩小。通过包容性财富指数与国内生产总值比较分析发现:包容性财富和国内生产总值两个指标在计算总量和人均量上的排名相差不大,但在增长率方面存在很大差别。此外,国内生产总值对资源型国家或省份的财富统计存在一定的局限,而包容性财富指数可以从一个全新维度和视角来分析经济社会的发展演变,是国民账户核算体系经济分析的又一重要指标。通过对包容性财富结构分析发现:中国包容性财富结构中自然资本占比持续下降,人力资本和生产性资本已开始成为中国财富增长的主要力量,中国的经济增长已完成依靠自然资本发展的阶段,处于由依靠生产性资本向依靠人力资本转型的重要阶段,预计2027年人力资本占比将超过生产性资本占比。This paper uses the Educational Cost Method to construct the human capital measurement model to estimate and analyze China's provincial human capital by determining the number of various educational levels of educational populations in provinces of China,the years to be taken to finish each level education stage and the cost of per student of each educational stages.The paper uses the Perpetual Inventory Method to construct manufactured capital measurement model to estimate and analyze China's provincial manufactured capital by determining the base year capital stock,capital depreciation rate and annual investment and investment price index.The paper uses the Prospective Yield Discount Method to construct productive natural capital measurement model to estimate and analyze China's provincial productive natural capital by determining annual output value,gross profit rate and discount rate of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery and construct the nonproductive natural capital measurement model to estimate and analyze China's provincial nonproductive natural capital by determining produced quantity,reserves,unit value,gross profit rate and implicit price deflators of mineral resources.At last,the paper measures and analyzes the inclusive wealth and its structure.The analysis of China's inclusive wealth index shows inclusive wealth and per capita inclusive wealth have achieved positive growth in China and provinces of China,but the development of the provinces is uneven,and the gap is still large in inclusive wealth and per capita inclusive wealth among provinces.And the gap in inclusive wealth continues to widen,but the gap in inclusive wealth per capita is narrowing.The comparative analysis of the inclusive wealth index and GDP shows that there's not much difference in the ranking of the calculated total amount and per capita amount between the inclusive wealth and GDP,but there is a big difference in the growth rate.Besides,there are certain limitations on the wealth statistics of resource-based count

关 键 词：包容性财富 人力资本 生产性资本 自然资本 国内生产总值 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]