基于物理量参数的贵州省雷电潜势预报研究  

Lightning Potential Prediction in Guizhou Province Based on Physical Parameters

作　　者：吴安坤 丁旻 李迪 张弛 WU Ankun;DING Min;LI Di;ZHANG Chi(Guizhou Lightning Protection and Disaster Reduction Center,Guiyang 550081,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象灾害防御技术中心,贵阳550081

出　　处：《电瓷避雷器》2023年第1期208-215,共8页Insulators and Surge Arresters

基　　金：贵州省科技计划项目(编号:黔科合基础-ZK[2022]一般245,黔科合支撑[2021]一般510)。

摘　　要：本研究利用贵阳站2020年1~10月逐日探空资料,计算了74个物理量参数。在物理量参数与闪电活动次数、雷暴活动事件相关系数的显著性检验基础上,选定了具有预报意义的16个物理量参数,采取累计概率极差法统计样本值域分布,确定其单一指标判定范围,单一物理量判定雷暴活动命中率均达到70%;应用逐步回归建立雷暴潜势预报方程,选定了瑞士第二雷暴指数(SWISS12)、抬升指数(LI)、最大抬升指数(BLI)、修正杰弗逊指数(TMJ)、修正K指数(mK)、整层比湿积分(IntegralQ)5个物理参量,生成预测模型达到极其显著水平;通过ROC曲线和ISO精度线确定预报模型的概率阈值为0.47,雷电潜势预报的命中率POD为83.5%,虚假警报率FAR为20.4%,临界成功指数CSI为68.8%,准确率较高,雷电潜势预报具有较好的预报能力。74 physical parameters are calculated by using the daily sounding data of Guiyang station from January to October 2020.On the basis of the significant test of the correlation coefficient between the physical parameters and the number of lightning activities and thunderstorm events, 16 physical parameters with predictive significance are selected. The cumulative probability range method is used to count the sample range distribution, and the single index determination range is determined. The single physical parameter determines that the hit rate of thunderstorm activity reaches 70%.The prediction equation of thunderstorm potential was established by stepwise regression. The five physical parameters of SWISS12, LI, BLI, TMJ, mK and IntegralQ were selected, and the prediction model reached extremely significant level.The probability threshold of the forecast model is determined by ROC curve and ISO accuracy line as 0.47, the hit rate of lightning potential forecast is 83.5%, the false alarm rate FAR is 20.4%, the critical success index CSI is 68.8%, and the accuracy rate is high. Potential forecasting has good forecasting capabilities.

关 键 词：雷电潜势预报 物理量参数 累计概率极差法 ROC曲线 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]