中部崛起战略的政策效应评估——基于合成控制法的经验证据  

Policy Effect Assessment of the Strategy for the Rise of Central China:Empirical Evidence Based on Synthetic Control Method

作　　者：殷阿娜 马钰芳 YIN A'na;MA Yufang(Faculty of Economics,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学经济学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《金融理论与教学》2023年第1期67-73,共7页Finance Theory and Teaching

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“新时代基于环境治理绩效测度的绿色发展路径选择研究”(18BJY081)。

摘　　要：中部崛起战略实施的经济效应如何,关乎中部六省未来政策着力点和进一步协调发展的广度和深度。以中部六省为研究对象,以2006年发布的纲领性文件《关于促进中部地区崛起的若干意见》为中部崛起战略开始实施的时间节点,使用合成控制法,实证评估了中部崛起战略实施的政策效应。研究结果表明:中部崛起战略的经济效应具有显著的总体有效性、省际差异性、时滞性和阶段性特征。最后,文章从增加科学高效的政策供给、推进区域政策一体化和融入双循环新发展格局三个层面,提出了相关政策建议。The economic effect of the strategy for the rise of Central China is related to the future policy focus of the six central provinces and the breadth and depth of further coordinated development.With the six central provinces as the research object and the programmatic document“Several Opinions on Promoting the Rise of Central China”issued in 2006 as the time node for the implementation of the strategy for the rise of Central China,the paper uses the synthetic control method to empirically evaluate the policy effect of the strategy.The research results show that the economic effect of the strategy for the rise of Central China has significant overall effectiveness,inter-provincial difference,time lag and stage characteristics.Finally,the article puts forward relevant policy suggestions from three levels:increasing scientific and efficient policy supply,promoting regional policy integration and integrating into the new development pattern of double cycle.

关 键 词：中部崛起战略 经济效应 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]