房价与地方政府债务关系的国际比较研究  

International Comparative Study on the Relationship Between Housing Price and Local Government Debt

作　　者：陈瑞[1] 苏彤 陈辉 CHEN Rui;SU Tong;CHEN Hui(China Cinda Asset Management Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100031,China;School of Economics and Management,Baoding University,Baoding Hebei 071000,China;Tianjin Jinghai District Development and Reform Commission,Tianjin 301602,China)

机构地区：[1]中国信达资产管理股份有限公司,北京100031 [2]保定学院经济管理学院,河北保定071000 [3]天津市静海区发展和改革委员会,天津301602

出　　处：《金融理论与教学》2023年第1期86-90,共5页Finance Theory and Teaching

摘　　要：地方政府债务问题是中国重要风险隐患之一,而房地产市场繁荣是地方政府土地财政增收的重要保障。研究采用2010-2020年30个省级面板数据实证表明:房价对地方政府债务规模起到显著的正向影响,且这一结论是稳健的。从国际案例中美国、新西兰的经验来看:美国将房产税作为偿还市政债券资金来源,在房价上涨情况下,其增发债务的可能性更大;新西兰政府不对债务实施规模控制,房产税收入是影响其借债水平的最主要因素,这有助于提高地方政府偿债能力和借债能力。据此,建议参考政府债务管理的国际经验,逐步完善地方政府债务发行机制。The problem of local government debt is one of the important risks and hidden dangers in China.The boom of the real estate market is an important guarantee for the local government to increase financial revenue in land.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2020,the empirical study shows that housing price has a significant positive impact on the scale of local government debt,and this conclusion is robust.From the international experience of the United States and New Zealand,the government of the United States that uses the real estate tax as a source of funds to repay municipal bonds is more likely to issue additional bonds when the housing price rises.The government of New Zealand does not implement debt scale control.The income from real estate tax is the most important factor affecting its debt level,which will help improve the debt-paying ability and borrowing capacity of the local government.Therefore,it is suggested to refer to the international experience of government debt management and gradually improve the local government debt issuance mechanism.

关 键 词：房价 地方政府债务 国际经验 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]