基于泊松回归模型分析中国、韩国、美国和法国四国COVID-19流行特征及防控措施效果  

Comparative study on epidemiological characteristics and public health interventions of COVID-19 among China,South Korea,the United States and France based on the poisson regression model

作　　者：张昱勤 陈世瑞 王馨苒 林晓[1] 陈修远 郝元涛[1,2,3,4] ZHANG Yu-qin;CHEN Shi-rui;WANG Xin-ran;LIN Xiao;CHEN Xiu-yuan;HAO Yuan-tao(Department of Medical Statistics,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response,Beijing 100191,China;Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510080,China;Center for Health Information Research,Sun Yat-sen Universiy,Guangzhou 510080,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院医学统计学系,广州510080 [2]北京大学公众健康与重大疫情防控战略研究中心,北京100191 [3]中山大学全球卫生研究中心,广州510080 [4]中山大学卫生信息研究中心,广州510080

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第2期142-147,230,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81973150);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2020A1515011294);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2021M693594);广东省自然科学基金(2021A1515011765)。

摘　　要：目的分析中国、韩国、美国和法国四国COVID-19流行特征和发展趋势,对比评价各国经济支持、遏制封锁以及卫生体系相关三类政策措施防控效果。方法收集中国内地、韩国、美国及法国每日报告新增确诊COVID-19病例数、每日综合政策指数及具体措施指标,考虑政策效果的滞后作用,建立泊松回归模型估计每日实时再生数(time-dependent reproduction number,Rt),利用log-log时变系数回归模型对比各国政策措施的防控效果。结果遏制封锁和卫生体系相关政策措施与Rt存在负相关,且随滞后时间增大,累计滞后效应减弱,经济支持相关政策仅在美、法两国与Rt存在负相关。美、法两国政策对Rt的效应弱于中、韩两国。结论遏制封锁和卫生体系相关政策对降低Rt,控制疫情具有较大效应,疫情初期采取及时有力的综合性阻断措施相比于缓解政策措施具有更好的疫情防控效果。Objective To analyze the trend of COVID-19 epidemic and to comparatively evaluate effects of economic policies,containment and closure policies and health system policies in China,South Korea,the United States(US)and France.Methods Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and daily comprehensive policy index,specific indicators in China's Mainland,South Korea,US and France were collected.Considering the lag effect of policy effects,poisson regression model was established to estimate the daily real-time regeneration(Rt),and the log-log model with variable coefficient was used to compare the prevention and control effects of policies and measures in different countries.Results Containment and closure policies and health system policies were negatively correlated with Rt,and the cumulative lag effect weakens with the increase of lag time.Economic policies were negatively correlated with Rt only in US and France.The effect of American and French policies on Rt was weaker than that of China and South Korea.Conclusion Containment and closure policies and health system policies have a great effect on reducing Rt and controlling the epidemic,the timely and powerful comprehensive blockade measures at the early stage of the epidemic have better effects than mitigation measures.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 泊松回归 政策评价 风险评分 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]