东亚区域生产网络演进中的日本角色变迁  

The Changes of Japan’s Role in the Evolution of the East Asian Regional Production Network

作　　者：李俊久[1] 姜美旭 LI Junjiu;JIANG Meixu(School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2022年第6期36-50,共15页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：教育部2021年高校国别和区域研究年度课题“美国政府供应链政策调整及对我国影响研究”(2021-N55);吉林大学“新文科”创新团队项目“基于复杂网络分析的人民币国际化推进策略研究”(2021XWK04)。

摘　　要：在东亚区域生产网络的形成与发展过程中,日本扮演的角色由于其综合国力下降与区域影响力减弱等原因发生了多次变化。为更准确描述和刻画东亚区域生产网络演进中的日本角色变迁,可以基于长期历史视角,利用社会网络分析方法,构建东亚经济体间多值邻接矩阵,对东亚区域生产网络的拓扑结构进行演绎。研究结论如下:1985年的《广场协定》促成了东亚区域生产网络的构建,日本承担着“雁阵模式”的“领头雁”角色;1997年的亚洲金融危机诱发了东亚区域生产网络的第一次重构,日本的网络中心度虽日渐式微,但仍在东亚“10+3”合作机制中扮演着“重要参与者”的角色;新冠疫情的暴发驱动了东亚区域生产网络的第二次重构,日本斡旋于中、美两国之间,成为东亚“二元困境”下的“摇摆国”角色。Japan once played an important role in the formation and development of the East Asian regional production network,but its role in East Asia has changed many times due to its weakened comprehensive national strength and regional influence.In order to more accurately describe and depict the changes of Japan’s role in the evolution of the East Asian regional production network,based on a long-term historical perspective,the research uses social network analysis method to build a multivalued adjacency matrix between East Asian economies,and deduces the topology of the East Asian regional production network.On this basis,this paper draws the following conclusions.The Plaza Agreement signed in 1985 led to the construction of the East Asian regional production network,and Japan assumed the"leading role"of the"flying geese pattern".The 1997 Asian financial crisis triggered the first restructuring of the East Asian regional production network.Although Japan’s network centrality was declining,it still played an"important role"in the East Asian"10+3"cooperation mechanism.The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic has driven the second restructuring of the East Asian regional production network.Japan mediates between China and the United States,becoming a"swing country"under the"dual dilemma"in East Asia.

关 键 词：东亚生产网络 重构 后疫情时代 日本 社会网络分析 

分 类 号：F133.135[经济管理—世界经济]