空气污染对重污染公司股票价格的影响:基于政策干预视角的经济价值研究  

The Effects of Air Pollution on Stock Prices of Heavy-air-pollution Enterprises: A Policy Intervention Perspective on Economic Value

作　　者：吴晞 王玉东[1] WU Xi;WANG Yu-dong(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2023年第1期267-276,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72071114,71722015);霍英东青年教师基金资助项目(171074)。

摘　　要：随着经济发展和产业结构调整,社会公众和政府部门对空气污染问题的原因和治理给予了更多关注。空气重污染公司聚焦度陡增,在经营业绩、发展前景和股市表现方面受到不同程度的冲击。本文利用2014—2019年全国地级市层面空气重污染公司的日度非平衡面板数据,研究政策干预视角下空气污染对股票交易的影响及其经济价值。相较人体弹性感知能力,以空气质量等级变化为触发条件的地方政府防治措施能够更精准地对空气污染做出反应,进而通过公司基本面和投资者情绪渠道影响股市交易。实证结果显示,空气质量等级恶化会对空气重污染公司的股价产生非持续性负面影响,且股价的短期下跌伴随换手率上升特点。经济意义检验表明,空气污染与股价短期关系的发现能够指导投资实践以获取经济增益,而空气质量指数具有改进股价预测的潜力。本文的研究对理解政策干预视角下空气污染对股票市场的影响、股价预测和投资组合均具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。Recent haze weather events make the air quality problem a social hot topic. Public awareness of the detrimental effects of air pollution on health has grown significantly. On the basis of overall control, government departments are increasingly paying attention to territorial responsibility, collaborative prevention and control, and pollution source supervision. Public awareness and the local government’s measures have greatly impacted listed companies, especially those with heavy air pollution. Understanding the impact of air pollution on stock market trading is therefore imperative for policy makers and investors.Most of the existing literature believes that the health hazards of air pollution affect investor sentiment, which in turn affects stock prices. However, human perception is resilient. Technical Regulation on Ambient Air Quality Index states that healthy people will generally develop symptoms only at a severe pollution level. A variety of factors, including natural conditions, living habits and economic development characteristics, influence people’s ability to tolerate air pollution. In stark contrast, local government air pollution control measures can be more precise in responding to changes in air quality levels, which in turn affect stock market trading through company fundamentals and investor sentiment.The impact of air pollution on stock market trading is examined from the perspective of policy intervention. Specifically, three testable hypotheses are set. The first hypothesis being tested is whether heavy air pollution companies’ stock prices fall as a result of air pollution. The second is to test whether deteriorating air quality will cause short-term, non-sustainable declines in heavy air pollution companies’ stock prices. The last hypothesis tests for the characteristics of high turnover rates during such declines.The sample period of this paper is from 2014 to 2019, and the data cover prefecture level cities, involving A-share listed companies in six major air pollution industries

关 键 词：空气污染 空气质量 股价 地方政策 投资者情绪 

分 类 号：D01[政治法律—政治学] G18[文化科学]