大食物观下中国饲料粮供给安全问题研究  

The Security of Feed Grains Supply in China from the Perspective of a Big Food Concept

作　　者：刘长全[1] 韩磊[1] 李婷婷[1] 王术坤 罗千峰 LIU Changquan;HAN Lei;LI Tingting;WANG Shukun;LUO Qianfeng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2023年第1期33-57,共25页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：中国社会科学院农村发展研究所创新工程项目“中国饲料粮供给安全问题研究”;财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(编号:CARS36)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文研究了中国饲料粮供给安全面临的形势和主要挑战,分析了粮饲结构调整对破解农业结构矛盾、保障大食物供给总体安全的作用,提出了大食物观视角下保障饲料粮供给安全的思路与对策。研究表明:在“口粮过剩与饲料粮短缺并存”情况下,对口粮自给率标准与形势的认识误区导致了粮饲结构错配问题的深化和累积;饲料粮生产面临资源潜力开发水平低与空间错配问题,包括“高潜低用,低潜超用”问题和更突出的实际优势品种与潜在优势品种偏离问题;饲料粮的科技投入与科技支撑更加不足;饲料粮的对外依赖面临更大脆弱性,体现为进口对国际市场供给能力和对少数来源地的依赖度更高。模拟分析显示,在不影响口粮绝对安全的前提下,粮饲结构调整能够降低食物供给总体对外依赖度,提高饲料粮自给率。This article investigates the status and challenges faced by the security of feed grains supply in China,analyzes the role of structural adjustment of staple and feed crops in solving structural misallocation in agriculture and ensuring the overall safety of food supply,and puts forward a number of ideas and countermeasures for ensuring food security from the perspective of a big food concept.It shows that under the circumstances of"coexistence of over-supply of staple food and shortage of feed grains",the misunderstandings of the standard and situation of self-sufficiency rate of ration have led to the deepening and accumulation of structural misallocation of staple and feed crops.Feed grains production is facing the problems of a low level of resource potential development and spatial misallocation,including the problem of"insufficient utilization in areas with high level of resource potential and excessive utilization in areas with low level of resource potential",and a more prominent problem of deviation of crops with comparative advantage(CA)in actual yield from crops with CA in potential yield.The scientific and technological input and support of feed grains production remain inadequate.The external dependence of feed grains supply on foreign sources has become increasingly vulnerable,which is reflected in the higher dependence of imports on international market supply capacity and a few number of important exporters.The simulation analysis shows that,without affecting the absolute security of staple food,the adjustment of staple and feed crops composition can reduce the overall dependence of food supply on foreign sources and increase the self-sufficiency rate of feed grains.

关 键 词：大食物观 饲料粮 供给安全 自给率 结构错配 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]