往返平飘式探空观测系统对CMA-MESO的影响研究  

Study on the Influence of Return Sounding Observation System Based on CMA-MESO

作　　者：王瑞文 王金成[1,2] 王丹 陶亦为 田伟红[1,2] WANG Ruiwen;WANG Jincheng;WANG Dan;TAO Yiwei;TIAN Weihong(Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA,Beijing 100081;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 [2]灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2023年第1期52-61,共10页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506205、2018YFC1506202);中国气象局数值预报发展专项(GRAPES-FZZX-2021)共同资助。

摘　　要：往返平飘式探空观测是我国研发的一种新型高空观测技术,除了具备与传统探空观测一致的上升段大气垂直廓线观测能力,同时还增加了平飘段和下降段的大气探测,自动实现了探测廓线的时空加密。利用ERA5再分析资料作为“真值”,利用往返平飘式探空模拟仿真系统构造了往返式探空模拟观测,基于CMA-MESO区域模式和3D-Var同化系统进行了观测系统模拟试验(Observing System Simulation Experiments,OSSEs)。数值试验结果表明:相比传统单次上升段探空观测,往返平飘式探空在全国组网的情况下,其增加的下降段模拟探空观测,能够有效提高CMA-MESO的降水预报技巧,不同降水量级的ETS评分提高约2%~5%,同时改进要素场(温、湿场和风场)的预报,改进率约为2%~5%。此外,典型天气个例分析结果表明,增加往返平飘式探空观测能够改善模式初值偏差,从而更准确地模拟降水分布。该文的研究结论为往返平飘式探空的未来科学布局和应用提供了理论支撑。The return sounding observation is a new high-altitude observation technique developed by China.In addition to the observation of vertical profile in the ascending stage,at the same time,the atmospheric sounding in the period of floating and falling is added to this technique and the space-time densification of the sounding profile is realized automatically.In this paper,with the ERA5 reanalysis data as the"true value",the return sounding simulation system is used to construct the return sounding simulation observation.Besides,Observing System Simulation Experiments(OSSEs)are conducted based on CMA-MESO regional model and 3D-Var assimilation system.The results of numerical experiments show that compared with the traditional single-rise sounding observation,the simulated sounding observation of the descending section of the return sounding can effectively improve the precipitation forecasting skills of CMA-MESO in the circumstances with national network,and the ETs scores for different precipitation grades can be improved by about 2%-5%.At the same time,the forecast of factor field(temperature,humidity and wind field)is improved,with improvement rate about 2%-5%.In addition,the analysis results of typical weather cases suggest that the increase of return sounding observations can improve the initial model deviation,thus more accurate simulation of precipitation distribution.Generally,the research results of this paper would provide a theoretical support for the future scientific layout and application of the return sounding.

关 键 词：往返平飘式探空 观测系统模拟试验 资料同化 数值预报 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]