基于CNN-Bi-LSTM功率预测的海岛综合能源系统优化调度  

Optimal Dispatch of the Island Integrated Energy System Including Power Prediction Based on CNN-Bi-LSTM

作　　者：王润治 王瑞琪 刘继彦 王旭东 陈阿莲[1] WANG Runzhi;WANG Ruiqi;LIU Jiyan;WANG Xudong;CHEN Alian(School of Control Science and Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250001,Shandong Province,China;State Grid Shandong Integrated Energy Service Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250001,Shandong Province,China;State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company,Jinan 250001,Shandong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学控制科学与工程学院,山东省济南市250001 [2]国网山东综合能源服务有限公司,山东省济南市250001 [3]国网山东省电力公司,山东省济南市250001

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2023年第1期88-100,共13页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(海洋可再生能源多能互补智能变换与高效利用基础理论与关键技术,U2006222);山东省重点研发计划(基于多能互补的分布式综合能源系统关键控制装备研发及工程示范,2019JZZY010903);国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(面向能源转型背景下能源互联网零碳演进关键技术研究,5100-202116567A-0-5-SF)。

摘　　要：合理构建海岛综合能源系统对沿海能源清洁化转型意义重大,其优化调度更是实现海岛能源供需平衡的有效途径。为此,提出了一种考虑风光功率预测的海岛综合能源系统优化调度方法。首先,搭建包含氢能设备、海水源热泵、海水淡化装置、波浪能发电装置等新型能源转换设备的系统模型。其次,海上气候多变会导致新能源发电不稳定,故采用含环境变量重要性排序的一维卷积神经网络和双向长短时记忆神经网络(convolutional neural network-bi-directional long short-term memory,CNN-Bi-LSTM)联合模型对发电功率进行预测。然后,为维持海岛基本生存条件,以电-冷-淡水-氢平衡为约束,以改善系统运行经济性和可再生能源消纳率为目标函数,建立综合能源系统优化调度模型。对夏冬两个典型日进行仿真分析,结果表明所提出的预测模型具有较高的预测精度,所提优化调度方法可以实现海岛能源供需平衡,同时能够有效降低系统运行成本,提高可再生能源消纳率。The rational construction of island integrated energy system is of great significance to the clean transformation of coastal energy,and its optimal dispatch is an effective way to achieve the balance between energy supply and energy demand in islands.Based on this,an optimal dispatch method for island integrated energy system considering wind power prediction is proposed.Firstly,the system model including advanced energy conversion equipment is built,such as hydrogen energy equipment,seawater source heat pump,seawater desalination device,and wave power generation device.Secondly,since marine weather can lead to instability in renewable energy generation,the Convolutional Neural Network-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(CNN-Bi-LSTM)model with an importance rank of environmental variables is applied to predict power generation.Then,to maintain the basic living conditions of islands,taking the electric-cold-fresh water-hydrogen balance as the constraints and taking the improvements of system operation economy and renewable energy consumption rate as the objective functions,an optimal dispatch model of the integrated energy system is established.The simulation results of two typical days in summer and winter show that the proposed prediction model has high prediction accuracy.The proposed optimization dispatch method can achieve the balance between energy supply and energy demand of the island,effectively reduce the system operating cost,and improve the renewable energy consumption rate.

关 键 词：海岛综合能源系统 波浪能发电 风光预测 优化调度模型 可再生能源消纳率 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]