基于GLDAS-2数据的中国极端降水事件时空变异性研究  

Research on the Spatiotemporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in China Based on GLDAS-2 Data

作　　者：尚天赦 王飞[1,2] 戈文艳 SHANG Tianshe;WANG Fei;GE Wenyan(Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2023年第1期248-255,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“黄土高原刺槐林地根系挤压对土壤物理性状的影响”(42177344),“次降雨特征与植被变化对半干旱黄土区土壤水分补充的协同影响”(41771558);中国科学院国际伙伴计划“气候变化对阿根廷水土资源影响评估与综合适应对策研究”(16146KYSB20200001)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化导致极端降水事件频发,为了做好应对极端事件的准备,利用GLDAS-2.0数据集进行可靠性分析后,提取9个极端降水指标,使用M-K检验方法分析了1948—2014年中国极端降水事件时空变化特征及其突变趋势。结果表明:全国发生极端降水事件的频率增高,西北、西南和中南地区的年降水量增强趋势明显,连续湿润天数变少,强降水变多,其中西北地区变化最为明显;西北地区中西部,中南与西北、华东的两个交界范围,极端降水相关指标突变趋势明显。结果显示西北地区中西部,西南和中南交界地区以及中南和华东交界地区发生极端降水的频率高,应提前做好应对各种自然灾害的准备。Global climate change leads to frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events. In order to prepare for countermeasure to extreme events, 9 extreme precipitation indicators were extracted based on reliability analysis using the GLDAS-2.0 data set, and the M-K test was used to analyze the traits of the extreme precipitation in China from 1948 to 2014. The results show that the frequency of extreme precipitation events over the country had been increasing, and the apparent increases in the amounts of precipitation were observed in annual precipitation in the northwest, southwest and central and southern regions, and changes in the consecutive wet days and heavy precipitation showed that the consecutive wet days in northwest China decreased significantly while the heavy precipitation increased;in the border of central and western China, central and southern China, northwest and east China, extreme precipitation indicators were obviously abrupt. With respect to the high frequency of extreme precipitation in the central and western regions of northwest China, the junction of southwest and central south and the junction of central south and east China, preparations for combating various natural disasters should be made in advance.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 GLDAS M-K趋势分析 空间分布 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]