粮食主产区耕地生态安全障碍诊断及调控策略  

Study on Obstacle Diagnosis and Regulation Strategy of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in Main Grain Producing Areas

作　　者：范树平 李鹏 余波平 米逸诗 张红梅[2] 吴楠[3] 蔡擎宇 FAN Shuping;LI Peng;YU Boping;MI Yishi;ZHANG Hongmei;WU Nan;CAI Qingyu(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China;Key Laboratory of JiangHuai Arable Land Resources Protection and Eco-restoration,Anhui Provincial Institute of Land Surveying and Planning,Hefei 230601,China;Anhui Academy of Environmental Science,Hefei 230071,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽省土地勘测规划院,江淮耕地资源保护与生态修复自然资源部重点实验室,合肥230601 [3]安徽省环境科学研究院,合肥230071

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2023年第1期408-417,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873003);安徽省自然科学资助项目(1908085QG310);安徽农业大学校繁荣发展哲学社会科学资助项目(2018zs12zd);安徽农业大学引进与稳定人才项目(yj2018-60);安徽省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202010364071);安徽省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202010364078);安徽省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202010364063);安徽省自然资源科技项目(2022-K-6);安徽省自然资源科技项目(2021-K-5)。

摘　　要：生态安全作为耕地“三位一体化”的核心保护任务,越来越得到政府、公众及学术界广泛关注,耕地生态安全评价视为关键技术及重要依据。基于PSR模型构建耕地生态安全评价指标体系,以国家粮食主产区安徽省为例,综合运用改进熵权法、TOPSIS模型、ESDA模型及障碍诊断模型,评价安徽省2000年以来,以及分市级2000年、2010年、2018年3个年份的耕地生态安全度,剖析耕地生态安全时空分异特征,进一步诊断耕地生态障碍因子及对应调控策略。结果表明:(1)安徽省耕地生态安全度具有一定波动性,总体呈现上升趋势,由2000年的0.234 1增至2018年的0.724 7,大致分为低位震荡阶段、快速增长阶段及高位爬坡阶段;(2)近20年来耕地生态安全状态进一步呈现不平衡、不均衡演变趋势,导致全省耕地生态安全空间格局差异显著,尤其是以高风险、安全两类区域分布空间集中区域发生很大改变,基本呈现皖南地区安全程度高并由皖中地区过渡至皖北地区风险程度高的空间梯度格局,耕地生态安全空间集聚情况并未显著;(3)从全省维度分析,障碍因子以建成区绿化覆盖率、污水处理率等响应准则层为主,逐渐转变至复种指数、单位耕地粮食产量、人均建设用地面积、人口密度及城镇化水平等状态准则层、压力准则层等为主;从市级维度分析,省会及沿江城市群障碍因子以经济密度、城镇化水平及人均资源占比为主,皖北、皖西及皖东耕地集中连片区域障碍因子以单位耕地农膜负荷、农药化肥负荷、人均水资源量等为主,皖南及皖西山地丘陵区障碍因子以人均耕地面积、耕地垦殖率、复种指数等为主。研究提出落实耕地总量动态平衡、差异化推进全域综合整治、提高耕地生态安全保护意识及落实耕地生态安全补偿等提升耕地生态安全调控策略。As the core protection task of ‘three integration’ of cultivated land, ecological security has attracted more and more attention from the government, the public and academia. Cultivated land ecological security evaluation is regarded as the key technology and important basis. The cultivated land ecological security evaluation index system was constructed based on the PSR model. Taking Anhui Province, the main national grain producing area, as an example, we comprehensively used the improved entropy weight method, TOPSIS model, ESDA model and obstacle diagnosis model to evaluate the cultivated land ecological security in Anhui Province since 2000 and three years at the municipal level in 2000, 2010 and 2018, and to analyze the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of cultivated land ecological security, further to diagnose cultivated land ecological barrier factors and corresponding control strategies. The results show that:(1) the ecological security of cultivated land in Anhui Province had a certain fluctuation, showing an upward trend, from 0.234 1 in 2000 to 0.724 7 in 2018, which could be roughly divided into low shock stage, rapid growth stage and high climbing stage;(2) over the past 20 years, the state of cultivated land ecological security had further shown an unbalanced and unbalanced evolution trend, resulting in significant differences in the spatial pattern of cultivated land ecological security in the whole province;in particular, the spatial concentration areas of high-risk and security areas had changed greatly, basically showing a spatial gradient pattern of high security in southern Anhui and transition from central Anhui to northern Anhui, the spatial agglomeration of cultivated land ecological security was not significant;(3) from the perspective of the whole province, the obstacle factors were mainly the response criteria layer such as greening coverage rate and sewage treatment rate of built-up areas, and gradual change to the status criteria layer and pressure criteria lay

关 键 词：耕地 生态安全 障碍诊断 调控策略 粮食主产区 安徽省 

分 类 号：F304.5[经济管理—产业经济]