农村金融排斥、农业技术进步与粮食供给安全  

Rural financial exclusion,agricultural technological progress and food supply security

作　　者：张志新[1] 李成 靳玥 崔兆财 Zhang Zhixin;Li Cheng;Jin Yue;Cui Zhaocai(School of Economics,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,Shandong,China;Business School,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315021,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学经济学院,山东淄博255000 [2]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315021

出　　处：《科研管理》2023年第2期184-192,共9页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金项目:“国际化进程中的农村劳动力国内外流动一体化机理与调控研究”(17BJY107,2017.07—2020.03)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情余波未消、粮食进口国外约束趋紧,农村金融排斥、农业技术进步能否成为缓解中国粮食供给困境的重要变量?本研究基于中国30个省份2000—2018年的面板数据,运用双向固定效应、中介效应和门槛回归模型对以上问题进行了解答。研究发现:(1)农村金融排斥水平过高不仅会直接抑制粮食供给安全,还会通过农业技术进步间接影响粮食供给安全,即农业技术进步在农村金融排斥与粮食供给安全之间存在中介效应,并且该中介效应约占总效应的26.6%;(2)农业技术进步对粮食供给安全的影响存在非线性门槛特征,当农村金融排斥迈过门槛值0.679时,农业技术进步对粮食供给安全的促进作用趋弱。因此,我们应该多举措降低农村金融排斥水平、多手段提高农业技术进步效率,以保障我国粮食供给安全。Given the continuous spread of the impact of the new crown epidemic and the tightening of foreign restrictions on China’s food imports,can rural financial exclusion and agricultural technological progress become important variables to alleviate China′s food supply dilemma?In this paper,the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2000 to 2018 are used,and we use the entropy method to measure the rural financial exclusion index,and use the DEA-Malmquist method to measure the agricultural technology progress index,and the two-way fixed effect model,the mediating effect model and the threshold regression model are used to answer the above questions.The paper draws two main conclusions through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.First,the excessive level of rural financial exclusion will not only directly inhibit China′s food supply security,but also indirectly affect food supply security by affecting agricultural technological progress.Agricultural technological progress has an intermediary effect between rural financial exclusion and food supply security,and this intermediary effect accounts for about 26.6%of the total effect of rural financial exclusion on food supply security.On the one hand,the central bank should encourage rural financial institutions to provide more financial services to food producers through these institutional innovations,such as interest reduction or exemption,issuing more favorable loans,and providing guarantees for the risks necessary for food production.In addition,the central bank must set limits on financial institutions that provide financial services to farmers to regulate the minimum support limits for financial institutions.The second conclusion drawn by the thesis through the above analysis is that the impact of agricultural technological progress on food supply security has a non-linear threshold characteristic.When the rural financial exclusion index is greater than or equal to the threshold value of 0.679,the role of agricultural technological prog

关 键 词：农村金融排斥 农业技术进步 粮食供给安全 传导机制 门槛回归模型 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]