基于空间计量的中国水利灌溉率影响因素分析  

Influencing factors of water conservancy irrigation rate in China based on spatial metrology

作　　者：赵静[1] 刘增金[2] ZHAO Jing;LIU Zengjin(Ocean University of China,Qingdao,266100,China;Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Shanghai 201403,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,青岛266100 [2]上海市农业科学院,上海201403

出　　处：《上海农业学报》2023年第1期131-138,共8页Acta Agriculturae Shanghai

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603169);上海市政府决策咨询重点课题(2019-A-023);上海市科委“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究项目(22692110600)。

摘　　要：农田灌溉是保障国家粮食安全的关键,为了探究影响中国农田灌溉率的影响因素,通过计算2010-2019年全国各省的农田灌溉率,采用空间Durbin模型研究各省际之间农田灌溉率的空间关联效应、溢出效应及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)中国各省间的农田灌溉率具有明显的空间集聚态势,各地区间的关联效应表现出随时间变化独立程度减小的趋势。(2)对于农业种植业而言,邻近地区农田灌溉率增加1%,将会使本地农田灌溉率增加0.241%。相邻地区之间更容易借鉴相关政策,呈现相互模仿、共同发展的趋势。(3)农村人均GDP、城市化率、水库座数、人口年龄结构、生产设备投资、可支配收入的总效应显著,农村人均GDP、水库座数和可支配收入对农田灌溉率有一定的正向促进效果,而城市化率、年轻人口占比和生产设备投资则存在降低农田灌溉率的效应。Farmland irrigation is the key point to ensure national food security. In order to expore the influencing factors affecting China’s farmland irrigation rate,this paper calculates the farmland irrigation rate of all provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,and uses the spatial Durbin model to study the spatial correlation effect,spillover effect and influencing factors of farmland irrigation rate among provinces. The results show that:(1) the farmland irrigation rate among provinces in China has an obvious trend of spatial agglomeration,and the correlation effect between regions shows a trend of decreasing independence with time.(2) For the agricultural planting industry,an increase of 1% in farmland irrigation rate in adjacent areas will increase the local farmland irrigation rate by 0. 241%. It is easier for neighboring regions to learn from relevant policies,showing a trend of mutual imitation and common development.(3) The total effect of rural per capita GDP, urbanization rate,number of reservoirs,population age structure,investment in production equipment and disposable income is significant. Rural per capita GDP,number of reservoirs and disposable income have a certain positive effect on farmland irrigation rate, while urbanization rate, proportion of young people and investment in production equipment have the effect of reducing farmland irrigation rate.

关 键 词：农田灌溉 灌溉率 空间效应 空间Durbin模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：S274[农业科学—农业水土工程] F323.213[农业科学—农业工程]