基于主成分分析的新型冠状病毒感染防控影响因素研究  

Research on the Influencing Factors of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Based on Principal Component Analysis

作　　者：李寻昌[1] 刘怡帆 王雅倩 杨威[1] 许锐[1] LI Xunchang;LIU Yifan;WANG Yaqian;YANG Wei;XU Rui(College of Geological Engineering and Surveying,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,陕西西安710000

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2023年第1期49-56,63,共9页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2022JM-280)。

摘　　要：当前新冠疫情对世界各国存在多方面的影响,研究新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的预防和控制依然是维护世界公共卫生安全的重点工作。分析不同防控因素对疫情发展的影响程度,以美国、英国、匈牙利、以色列、塞尔维亚等14个疫情国家为例,构建新型冠状病毒感染防控评估模型,运用主成分分析法,对新型冠状病毒感染发展和防控影响较大的因素进行了提取,并分析以上国家的疫情数据。结果表明严格的管控措施和较高的疫苗接种率对疫情防控非常有效。各国在疫情出现反弹时,收紧管控措施能降低疫情蔓延的速度,盲目放松管控措施会损害已有的防疫效果;疫苗接种率的提高对控制确诊病例的下降效果较为明显。针对影响因素合理制定疫情防控措施,可以控制疫情的发展蔓延,为今后各国应对重大传染病提供思路。At present,the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is still raging around the world,and the prevention and control of it(COVID-19)is the current focus of maintaining world public health security.To analyze the impact of different prevention and control factors on the development of the epidemic,taking 14 epidemic countries including the United States,the United Kingdom,Hungary,Israel,and Serbia as examples,a new coronary pneumonia epidemic prevention and control evaluation model was constructed,and the principal component analysis method was used to analyze the development of the coronary pneumonia.The factors that have a greater impact on prevention and control were extracted,and the epidemic data of the above countries were analyzed.Strict control measures and high vaccination rates are very effective for epidemic prevention and control.When the epidemic rebounds in various countries,tightening control measures can reduce the speed of the spread,while blindly relaxing control measures will damage the existing epidemic prevention effect.The increase in vaccination rate has a more obvious effect on controlling the decline of confirmed cases.Reasonably formulate epidemic prevention and control measures according to the influencing factors to control the development and spread of the epidemic.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒感染 疫情防控 主成分分析法 新型冠状病毒疫苗 疫苗接种 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]