俄美军用人工智能竞争的战略稳定风险及其治理路径  

Risks to Strategic Stability of Russia-U.S. Competition in Military Artificial Intelligence and the Governance Path

作　　者：张煌[1] 杜雁芸 Zhang Huang;Du Yanyun

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学军政基础教育学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2022年第6期157-190,共34页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金计划重点项目“ANT视域下的颠覆性技术创新研究”(项目批准号:20AZX006)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄美两国围绕军用人工智能领域展开的竞争日趋白热化。在竞争空间方面,呈现陆、海、空、天、网络等多维一体的特征;在竞争领域方面,呈现由常规领域向核领域渗透和融合的趋势;在竞争策略方面,呈现出美国追求全面领先优势与俄罗斯重点突破、以点带面策略之间的差异性。俄美人工智能军事化发展对于全球战略稳定的影响具体体现在三个方面:对首攻稳定性而言,人工智能会削弱俄美建立在二次打击能力基础之上的“报复性力量”,动摇“相互确保生存”的战略稳定模式,从而激励实施先发打击的意愿;对危机稳定性而言,俄美核指挥控制系统的人工智能化发展,可能增加危机意外升级和人为升级的风险,进而导致升级进程失去控制;对军备竞赛稳定性而言,俄美在人工智能军备发展意图和能力上的不透明性,降低了双方的信任度,导致军备竞赛的持续深化。实现对人工智能军事化的安全治理,必须密切人工智能军事强国之间的对话交流,增强战略互信,构建安全利益共同体;必须完善涵盖军备控制机制、危机管理机制和伦理道德约束机制在内的治理体系;必须以全球治理的理念构建安全治理网络,汇聚科技专家和非政府组织等多元治理力量,共同推动安全治理进程。The competition between Russia and the United States in terms of military artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly fierce. In terms of competition space, it is characterized by multi-dimensional integration of land,sea, air, space, and network. As to competition fields, it shows the trend of penetration and integration from the conventional field to the nuclear field. As for competition strategy, it shows the difference between the United States and Russia with the former pursuing overall leadership while the latter seeking key breakthroughs and point-to-area strategy. The impact of the militarization of artificial intelligence in Russia and the United States on global strategic stability is specifically reflected in three aspects. First, for the stability of the first attack,artificial intelligence weakens the “retaliatory power” of Russia and the United States based on the second-strike capability, shakes the strategic stability model of “mutually ensured survival”, thereby incentivizing the willingness to implement pre-emptive strikes. Second, in terms of crisis stability, the development of artificial intelligence in the Russian-U.S. nuclear command and control system may increase the risk of accidental and artificial escalation of the crisis, which in turn led to the loss of control over the escalation. Third, as to the stability of the arms race, the opacity of Russia and the United States in the development of artificial intelligence armaments and capabilities has reduced the trust between the two sides and led to the continuous deepening of the arms race.To realize the security governance of the militarization of artificial intelligence, it is necessary to intensify the dialogue and exchanges between artificial intelligence military powers, enhance strategic mutual trust, and build a community of shared security interests. It is imperative to improve governance system covering arms control mechanisms, crisis management mechanisms, and ethical, moral restraint mechanisms. Besides, it is als

关 键 词：军用人工智能 自主武器系统 俄美军备竞赛 战略稳定性 安全治理 

分 类 号：E92[军事—军事装备学]