基于Copula函数的陕西苹果晚霜冻特征分析  

Analysis of the characteristics of apple later frost risks in Shaanxi Province based on Copula functions

作　　者：姜元 茹晓雅 罗琦 李美荣 王钊 王景红 冯浩[2,4] 张东 苏宝峰[6] 于强[4] 何建强 Jiang Yuan;Ru Xiaoya;Luo Qi;Li Meirong;Wang Zhao;Wang Jinghong;Feng Hao;Zhang Dong;Su Baofeng;Yu Qiang;He Jianqiang(Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Institute of Water-saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crops,Xi’an 710015,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Agriculture on the Loess Plateau,Institute of Water and Soil Conservation,Chinese Academy of Science and Ministry of Water Resource,Yangling 712100,China;College of Horticulture,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Internet of Things,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学中国旱区节水农业研究院,杨凌712100 [3]陕西省农业遥感与经济作物气象服务中心,西安710015 [4]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌712100 [5]西北农林科技大学园艺学院,杨凌712100 [6]西北农林科技大学农业农村部农业物联网重点实验室,杨凌712100

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2022年第23期170-180,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFD1900700);陕西省重点研发计划重点产业创新链(群)-农业领域项目(2019ZDLNY07-03);陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室2019年开放研究基金课题(2019Z-5);高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)(B12007)。

摘　　要：为探讨利用Copula函数对苹果晚霜冻进行特征分析的适用性,该研究首先基于陕西省苹果主产区7个气象站点1971-2018年的逐日最低气温(T min)数据集,提取出晚霜冻事件的历时和强度两个特征变量。然后,基于6种不同的Copula函数构建晚霜冻特征变量的联合分布,并进行拟合优度评价。最后,利用优选的Copula函数分析晚霜冻发生的概率及重现期。结果表明:陕西苹果产区各站点1971-2018年受晚霜冻的影响在空间分布上由东南向西北方向加重,各站点晚霜冻的历时和强度之间均具有显著的正相关关系。当晚霜冻强度和历时增大时,其联合累积概率也相应增大,且增大趋势变缓。各站点联合重现期代表的“或”事件比同现重现期所代表的“且”事件更容易发生。当单变量重现期取值较小时,可将联合重现期和同现重现期视为单变量重现期的两种极端情况,对其实际范围进行估计。总体而言,陕西苹果产区各站点发生长历时且高强度晚霜冻事件的概率较小,但是位于延安果区的站点相较于其他果区站点更容易发生高强度或长历时的晚霜冻事件,以及高强度长历时同时发生的晚霜冻事件,需要重点加以关注。该研究可为陕西苹果产区应对晚霜冻灾害提供理论依据。Late frost is one of the most destructive meteorological disasters in the Loess Plateau of China.A great threat can be posed to the sustainable production of apples,leading to great economic losses in the apple industry.Thus,it is a high demand to explore the occurrence of late frost events for the prevention of apple late frost disasters in the decision-making of the local apple industry.In this study,the late frost return periods were investigated on the duration and severity of late frost events using the Coupla functions.The reliability of the model was then verified to analyze the characteristics of apple late frost.The study area was taken as the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi Province in western China.The meteorological datasets were collected from the seven weather stations from 1971-2018.The daily minimum temperature(Tmin)of 0℃was taken as the critical temperature for the occurrence of apple late frost events,in order to extract the two characteristic variables of duration and severity of late frost events.These characteristic variables of late frost events were first fitted by seven common distribution functions,respectively.Kolmogorov Smirnov(K-S)test was then carried out to verify the model.The joint distributions of late frost characteristic variables were constructed to evaluate the goodness-of-fit using six Copula functions.The occurrence probability and return period of late frost events were analyzed with the optimized Copula functions.The results showed that the severity of late frost risks generally increased from the southeast to northwest in the study area from 1971 to 2018.The optimal marginal distribution of late frost duration was in the log-normal distribution,while there was a great difference in the optimal marginal distributions of late frost severity.A significant positive correlation was found between the duration variables and the severity of late frost at each station.The joint cumulative probability increased significantly,as the severity and duration of late frost increased,b

关 键 词：气象 灾害 晚霜冻 COPULA函数 频率分析 重现期 苹果 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]