首轮退耕补贴到期对农户非农就业的影响  

Impact of the expiration of subsidies for the first round of the SLCP on farmhouseholds’off-farm employment

作　　者：陈琛 石颜露 邱珊珊 王立群[1] CHEN Chen;SHI Yanlu;QIU Shanshan;WANG Liqun(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2022年第12期15-21,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71873017)资助。

摘　　要：探讨首轮退耕补贴到期对农户非农就业的影响,有助于为后续退耕还林政策的完善、促进农户非农就业以及实现乡村振兴战略的总目标提供重要的经验证据。文中以首轮退耕还林补贴政策大范围到期为背景,基于湖南、宁夏和甘肃三地的调查数据,选择参与首轮退耕还林的样本农户作为准自然实验的对象,通过精确断点回归设计,从非农就业决策和非农就业收入两个方面探讨首轮退耕补贴到期对农户非农就业的影响。研究结果表明:1)退耕补贴到期对农户非农就业决策和非农就业收入的局部平均处理效应均显著为正,其中,农户非农就业决策的概率平均提高7.4%~8.6%,农户非农就业收入平均增加9.5%~12.4%。2)退耕补贴到期对不同类型农户非农就业决策和非农就业收入的影响存在异质性,对中高学历农户和中青年农户的非农就业决策和非农就业收入具有显著的正向影响,而对低学历农户和老年农户的影响却并不显著。To explore the impact of the expiration of subsidies for the first round of the SLCP on farm households’off-farm employment is helpful to provide important empirical evidence for improving the follow-up policies of the SLCP,promoting farm households’off-farm employment and realizing the overall goal of rural vitalization strategy.In the context of large-scale expiration of subsidies,we used sharp regression discontinuity design to discuss the impact of the expiration of subsidies on farm households’non-farm employment from two aspects of non-agricultural employment decision and non-agricultural income by selecting sample farm households who participated in the first round of the SLCP as the objects of quasi random experiment and using the related data collected from farmer households in Hunan,Ningxia and Gansu.The results of the study show that,firstly,the local average treatment effect of the expiration of subsidies on farm households’off-farm employment decision and income was significantly positive,the probability of farmers’non-agricultural employment decision increased by 7.4%~8.6%,and farmers’non-agricultural employment income increased by 9.5%~12.4%.Secondly,there was heterogeneity in the impact of the expiration of subsidies on different farm households,and it had a significant positive effect on the off-farm employment decision and income of the middle to high educated farmers and the middle-aged to young farmers,while the effect on the low-educated farmers and the aging farmers is not significant.

关 键 词：退耕还林 补贴政策 非农就业 农户 断点回归设计 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]