预期寿命延长条件下自我人力资本投资对生育数量的挤出效应  

The Crowding-out Effect of Human Capital Investment on Fertility under the Condition of Extended Life Expectancy

作　　者：朱萌 艾蔚[2] ZHU Meng;AI Wei(School of Mathematics,Physics and Statistics,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China;School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学数理与统计学院,上海201620 [2]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《人口与社会》2023年第1期17-34,共18页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(20BJY014)。

摘　　要：我国生育政策调整并未产生预期效果的原因之一是人均预期寿命延长引致父代自我人力资本投资收益增加,进而使家庭生育数量决策面临内生性压力。在成年人预期寿命持续提高的条件下,用时间度量家庭生育抚养孩子的投入,呈现不同人力资本存量父代的生育抚养成本差异,研究父代的自我人力资本投资对家庭生育数量的挤出效应。而后,利用CHARLS数据,兼顾生育政策执行的时间与地域差异,检验父代自我人力资本投资对家庭生育数量的影响。实证发现,即使剔除生育质量对生育数量的替代作用,父代教育投入增加仍对家庭生育数量有挤出效应,特别是母亲的自我人力资本投资对家庭生育数量的挤出效应更强。这意味着家庭生育数量的主要抑制性因素已不再是生育政策,预期寿命延长引致的自我人力资本投资收益增加才是家庭生育数量下降的关键。所以,可通过调整生育抚养时间、延长工作年限来缓解挤出效应。One of the reasons why the adjustment of fertility policy has not produced the desired effect is that the extension of life expectancy leads to the increase of the income of human capital investment of the parents, and thus the endogenous pressure of family birth decision making. Under the condition that adult life expectancy continues to increase, using time to measure the input of family in child-rearing shows the difference of child-rearing cost of fathers with different human capital stock, and studies the crowding out effect of fathers’ self-investment in human capital on the number of family births. Then, using the CHARLS database, taking account of the implementation time and regional differences of the birth policy, the research tests the influence of the fathers’ personal human capital investment on the number of family births. The empirical results show that the increase of paternal education still has a crowding out effect on the number of family births, especially the mother’s self-investment in human capital, even if the substitution effect of fertility quality on fertility quantity is excluded. This means that the main inhibiting factor of the number of family births is no longer the fertility policy, but the increase of reward of human capital investment caused by the extension of life expectancy is the key to the decrease of the number of family births. Therefore, the crowding out effect can be alleviated by adjusting the child-rearing time and extending the working life.

关 键 词：预期寿命延长 时间成本 生育决策 自我人力资本投资 挤出效应 生育数量 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]