民生风险感知对婚育意愿的影响——基于CFPS2018的实证分析  

The Impact of People’s Livelihood Risk Perception on Marriage and Childbearing Intention:An Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS 2018

作　　者：李森林 张乐[2] LI Senlin;ZHANG Le(School of Political Science and Public Administration,Shandong University,Qingdao 266200,China;Center for Quality of Life and Public Policy,Shandong University,Qingdao 266200,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学政治学与公共管理学院,山东青岛266200 [2]山东大学生活质量与公共政策研究中心,山东青岛266200

出　　处：《人口与社会》2023年第1期84-98,共15页Population and Society

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“全面建成小康社会伟大历史性成就与经验研究”(21JZD014)。

摘　　要：在民生建设发展不充分不平衡的社会情境下,适龄人群的婚育意愿持续走低。在第二次人口转变理论和计划行为理论的分析框架下,基于CFPS2018数据,实证考察公众的民生风险感知对其初婚意愿和生育意愿的影响。研究发现:第一,民生风险感知推迟了未婚群体的预期初婚年龄,即民生风险感知对预期初婚年龄会产生“推迟效应”,乐群性在其中发挥了遮掩效应。第二,民生风险感知对适育个体的生育意愿产生了“抑制效应”,育儿抚养费负担感知是显著的中介路径。第三,民生风险感知对婚育期望的影响具有性别差异,男性表现为预期初婚年龄推迟,女性表现为生育意愿降低。随着人口结构的不断转变,未来适龄人群的婚育问题可能会进一步凸显。因此,应从化解社会民生问题的角度出发,加快实施更加积极的婚育支持措施,以保障和发展民生来应对不断降低的婚育意愿问题。In the context of inadequate and unbalanced development in people’s livelihood, the intention of marriage and childbearing of the age-appropriate population continues to decline.Under the analysis framework of the second population transition theory and planned behavior theory, based on the data of CFPS2018, this paper empirically examines the impact and mechanism of people’s livelihood risk perception on their willingness to first marriage and childbearing. The findings are as follows: First, people’s livelihood risk perception delays the expected age of first marriage for unmarried groups, that is, people’s livelihood risk perception has a “delaying effect” on the expected age of first marriage, in which group enjoyment plays a masking effect. Second, people’s livelihood risk perception has an “inhibiting effect” on the fertility intention of eligible individuals, and the burden of child support is a significant intermediary path. Third, the impact of people’s livelihood risk perception on marriage and childbearing expectation is gender-heterogeneous, with males presenting delayed age of first marriage and females presenting decreased fertility intention. With the continuous change of population structure, the problem of marriage and childbearing of the appropriate age group may be further highlighted in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of more active marriage and childbearing support measures in order to protect and develop people’s livelihood and deal with the problem of decreasing marriage and childbearing intention.

关 键 词：民生风险感知 初婚意愿 生育意愿 人口转变 社会保障 

分 类 号：C913[经济管理]