海平面上升对长江江阴以下河段风暴潮增水的影响  

Influence of sea level rise on storm surge water increase in the reach below Jiangyin of the Yangtze River

作　　者：王芬 谭亚[1] 刘士诚 WANG Fen;TAN Ya;LIU Shicheng(College of Harbor,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Shanghai Investigation,Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200335,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]上海勘测设计研究院有限公司,上海200335

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2023年第1期43-52,共10页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52071129)。

摘　　要：随全球气候变暖,海平面呈加速上升态势。长江口地处西北太平洋风暴盆地的西北缘,地势低洼,被评估为风暴潮灾害影响下的脆弱区。为研究海平面上升后长江江阴以下河段风暴潮位的变化,建立了精细化长江口天文潮-风暴潮耦合数学模型。该模型模拟分析了海平面上升后,在9711号“芸妮”和1509号“灿鸿”这两种典型台风作用下,长江口近岸天文潮和风暴增水的响应规律。研究结果表明:预计未来100年,海平面抬升70 cm后,长江口平均潮位上升50~80 cm。长江口江阴以下河段及近岸区域增水极值略微下降。增水极值自上游江阴到下游牛皮礁先增后减,增水极值沿程最大值的具体位置与台风路径、台风强度密切相关。研究可为中长期长江口沿岸城镇防洪排涝提供一定的理论依据。With the global warming,the sea level is rising at an accelerated rate.The Yangtze River estuary,located in the northwest edge of the storm basin in the northwest Pacific Ocean,with a low-lying terrain,is assessed as a vulnerable area under the impact of storm surge disasters.In order to study the changes of storm tide levels in the reach below Jiangyin of the Yangtze River after sea level rise,a refined mathematical model was established for the astronomical tide-storm surge coupling in the Yangtze River estuary.The model simulated and analyzed the response law of astronomical tides and storm surge near the Yangtze River estuary after sea level rise under the action of two typical typhoons,No.9711(Winnie)and No.1509(Chan-hom).The study shows that in the next 100 years,the average tidal level of the Yangtze River estuary will rise by 50~80 cm after the sea level rises by 70 cm.The extreme value of water increment in the reach below Jiangyin and near the shore area of the Yangtze estuary will decrease slightly.The extreme value of water increment will first increase and then decrease from Jiangyin in the upstream to Niupi Reef in the downstream.The specific location along the way of the extreme value of water increase is closely related to the typhoon path and typhoon intensity.The study can provide a theoretical basis for flood control and waterlogging drainage of towns along the Yangtze River estuary in the medium and long term.

关 键 词：长江口 海平面上升 台风路径 数值模拟 风暴增水 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]