社会稳定与经济增长——基于恐怖主义活动对中国经济影响的分析  

Social Stability and Economic Growth:Based on the Analysis of the Impact of Terrorist Activities on China’s Economy

作　　者：王垚[1] 年猛[2] WANG Yao;Nian Meng(Institute of Chinese Borderland Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,100101;Institute of Rural Development,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,100732)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院中国边疆研究所 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2022年第5期72-87,共16页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJY019);新疆智库委托项目(201801006)。

摘　　要：恐怖主义是影响社会稳定的因素之一。20世纪末期中国开始遭受恐怖主义威胁,对恐怖主义问题的研究也受到了政治、法律等学科的关注,但是对经济学来说,还是一个比较新的领域。本文从经济学角度出发,以地级行政区单元构造面板数据,分析了近30年恐怖主义活动对中国经济增长的冲击。实证研究结果显示:恐怖主义活动对中国经济增长产生了显著的负面影响,并且恐怖主义活动事件数量对经济增长造成的负面影响要显著大于恐怖主义活动致死人数的影响;在内在机制探讨方面,恐怖主义活动会通过抑制城市化水平、减少外商直接投资来影响一个地区的经济增长。除此之外,本文研究还表明,政治中心城市、发达地区城市、落后以及边疆地区城市的经济增长受恐怖主义活动的影响程度较大。Terrorism is one of the factors affecting social stability.At the end of the 20th century,China began to suffer from the threat of terrorism.The study of terrorism has also received attention from political and legal disciplines,but it is still a relatively new field for economics.From the perspective of economics,this paper analyzes the impact of terrorist activities on China’s economic growth in the recent 30 years.The empirical results show that terrorist activities have a significant negative impact on China’s economic growth,and the negative impact of the number of terrorist events on economic growth is significantly greater than the impact of the number of deaths caused by terrorist activities;In terms of internal mechanism,terrorist activities will affect the economic growth of a region by inhibiting the level of urbanization and reducing foreign direct investment.In addition,this study also shows that the economic growth of political central cities,cities in developed areas,and backward and frontier cities are greatly affected by terrorist activities.

关 键 词：经济增长 社会稳定 恐怖主义 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] F124.1[政治法律—政治学]