住房财富对城镇居民养老计划影响的实证研究  

The Impact of Housing Wealth on Urban Residents’Pension Plans

作　　者：廖毓 宋全云 尹志超[1] LIAO Yu;SONG Quanyun;YIN Zhichao(School of Finance,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing,100070;School of Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,611130)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院 [2]西南财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2022年第5期153-168,共16页China Economic Studies

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金青年项目(22JJC041)。

摘　　要：在人口老龄化背景下,居民如何规划养老已成为迫在眉睫的家庭和社会问题。本文使用2015年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,研究住房财富增值对城镇居民养老计划的影响,并分析住房财富增值影响养老计划的可能方式。为克服内生性偏误,本文采用工具变量法进行估计。结果显示,住房财富的增加显著提高了居民制定养老计划的可能性,并优化了养老方式的选择。随着住房财富的增加,居民更倾向选择依靠个人储蓄、投资和商业养老保险养老,依靠社会养老保险养老的可能性则降低。异质性分析表明,住房财富对养老方式选择的影响在不同年龄、不同金融知识水平等不同类型的居民中存在显著异质性。进一步研究发现,住房财富主要通过改变居民的养儿育女观念、促进家庭投资以及提高商业保险信任度改善居民养老方式的选择。本文认为,在坚持“房住不炒”的前提下,可发挥住房财富对居民养老观念的积极作用,提升居民养老准备意识和养老储备水平。With the increasing speed of aging in the Chinese population,providing urban residents’old-age supports has become an imminent social problem.This paper examines the impact of housing wealth on urban residents’pension plans using the 2015 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data.We use the instrumental variable approach to solve the endogeneity problem.The results show that housing wealth significantly improves urban residents’tendency to have a pension plan.As housing wealth increases,urban residents are more likely to rely on investment and purchase commercial insurance to support their old-age lives.Heterogeneity analyses show that the impact of housing wealth on pension plans differs in terms of residents’age,financial knowledge,hukou status,etc.Further analyses show that housing wealth influences residents’pension plans by affecting their attitude towards raising children,their believes in commercial insurance,and promoting investments.This research implies that gaining more housing wealth facilitates urban residents’preparation of pension plans for their retirement lives,under the guiding principle“Housing is for living in,not for speculation.”

关 键 词：住房财富 财富效应 养老计划 养老方式 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F719[政治法律—中外政治制度] F299.23[经济管理—产业经济] F832