Global mitigation efforts cannot neglect emerging emitters  

作　　者：Can Cui Dabo Guan Daoping Wang Jing Meng Vicky Chemutai Paul Brenton Shaohui Zhang Yuli Shan Qiang Zhang Steven J.Davis 

机构地区：[1]Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [2]The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction,University College London,WC1E 6BT,UK [3]Department of Computer Science and Technology,University of Cambridge,Cambridge CB3OFD,UK [4]Centre for Nature and Climate,World Economic Forum,Geneva CH-1223,Switzerland [5]School of Urban and Regional Science,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China [6]The World Bank,NW Washington,DC 20433,USA [7]School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China [8]International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg 2361,Austria [9]School of Geography,Earth and Environmental Sciences,University of Birmingham,Birmingham,B152TT,UK [10]Department of Earth System Science,University of California Irvine,CA 92697,USA [11]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of California Irvine,Irvine,CA92697,USA

出　　处：《National Science Review》2022年第12期76-83,共8页国家科学评论（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41921005 and 72140001);the UK Natural Environment Research Council(NE/V002414/1);the Royal Society(IECNSFC/191520).

摘　　要：International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change have historically focused on reducing energy-related CO_(2)emissions from countries with either the largest economies(e.g.the EU and the USA)and/or the largest populations(e.g.China and India).However,in recent years,emissions have surged among a different and much less-examined group of countries,raising concerns that a next generation of high-emitting economies will obviate current mitigation targets.Here,we analyse the trends and drivers of emissions in each of the 59 countries where emissions in 2010-2018 grew faster than the global average(excluding China and India),project their emissions under a range of longer-term energy scenarios and estimate the costs of decarbonization pathways.Total emissions from these’emerging emitters’reach as much as 7.5 GtCO_(2)/year in the baseline 2.5°scenari—substantially greater than the emissions from these regions in previously published scenarios that would limit warming to 1.5℃or even 2℃.Such unanticipated emissions would in turn require non-emitting energy deployment from all sectors within these emerging emitters,and faster and deeper reductions in emissions from other countries to meet international climate goals.Moreover,the annual costs of keeping emissions at the low level are in many cases 0.2%-4.1%of countries’gross domestic production,pointing to potential trade-offs with poverty-reduction goals and/or the need for economic support and low-carbon technology transfer from historically high-emitting countries.Our results thus highlight the critical importance of ramping up mitigation efforts in countries that to this point have been largely ignored.

关 键 词：emerging emitters developing countries climate change mitigation CO_(2)emissions net zero 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]