从最终需求的角度看房地产业在国民经济中的作用  

The Role of the Real Estate Industry in the National Economy from the Perspective of Final Demand

作　　者：任荣荣[1] 岳国强[1] Ren Rongrong;Yue Guoqiang

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院投资研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2023年第1期61-69,127,共10页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：本文从最终需求的角度构建了考量房地产业对国民经济贡献的方法,即以住宅投资与居住消费之和衡量的住房经济,并与美国、英国、日本进行国际比较分析。研究表明,发达国家与中国在房地产业对国民经济的贡献方面表现出诸多相似性和可参照性,包括住宅投资增速及其在GDP中占比表现出阶段性特征,居住消费在家庭消费支出中占比经历了先上升再趋于稳定的过程,住房消费端对国民经济的影响超过投资端。2013—2021年,中国以住宅投资与居住消费衡量的住房经济在GDP中占比平均为17.5%,并未明显高于美日等发达国家,其中,住宅投资在GDP中占比总体呈下降态势,居住消费在GDP中占比小幅上升,2018年来居住消费额首次超过住宅投资额。当前及未来一段时间,中国正处于住房投资带动作用下降而居民住房消费带动作用上升的发展阶段,在新发展阶段,房地产业要致力于通过构建新发展模式突出其最终使用功能和居住属性,与国民经济形成良性互动。This paper constructs a method to consider the contribution of the real estate industry to the national economy from the perspective of final demand,i.e.,the housing economy measured as the sum of residential investment and residential consumption,and conducts an international comparative analysis with the United States,the United Kingdom,and Japan.The study shows that there are many similarities and references between developed countries and China in terms of the contribution of the real estate industry to the national economy,including the growth rate of residential investment and its share in GDP,the share of residential consumption in household consumption expenditure,which first increases and then stabilizes,and the impact of the housing consumption side on the national economy exceeds that of the investment side.From 2013 to 2021,China’s housing economy,measured by residential investment and residential consumption,accounted for an average of 17.5% of GDP,which was not significantly higher than that of developed countries such as the U.S.and Japan,among which,residential investment in GDP was generally declining,while residential consumption in GDP increased slightly,and the amount of residential consumption exceeded that of residential investment for the first time in 2018.At present and for some time in the future,China is in a development stage where housing investment is driven down,and residential housing consumption is driven up.In the new development stage,the real estate industry should devote itself to highlighting its end-use function and residential attributes by building a new development model to form a positive interaction with the national economy.

关 键 词：房地产业 国民经济 最终需求 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F123.3