用“分型配料法”制作内蒙古东南部区域暴雨预报  

Using the “Parting method” to Make a Regional Rainstorm Forecast in the Southeastern of Inner Mongolia

作　　者：徐建国[1] 赵立清[1] 齐佳慧 Xu Jianguo;Zhao Liqing;Qi Jiahui(Tongliao Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Tongliao 028000)

机构地区：[1]通辽市气象局,内蒙古通辽028000

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2022年第3期3-8,共6页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

基　　金：通辽市气象局科技创新项目(201518)。

摘　　要：利用1952—2015年内蒙古东南部25个国家级气象观测站逐日降水量、历史天气图、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和1980—2015年的Micaps系统数据,统计出130次区域暴雨过程,将700 hPa环流分为8种类型;对发生在2007—2015年的17次暴雨过程,分型统计各层次物理量场特征,配料选取可降水量、水汽通量散度、垂直速度、假相当位温等物理意义明确的4个因子,注重暴雨的动力条件、热力条件、水汽供应及高低空配合,释用T639数值模式,应用“分型配料法”对2016—2018年发生的4种类型区域暴雨过程进行分站落区预报。结果表明:基于上述分型研究的“配料法”能较好地制作暴雨落区预报,从暴雨的实况与预报落区的对比看,T639数值预报模式具有很好的释用价值。By Using daily precipitation, historical weather maps, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1952 to 2015 and MICAPS data from 1980 to 2015 of 25 national observatories in southeastern Inner Mongolia,130 rainstorm weather process were counted and the 700 hPa circulation situation was divided into 8 types. For the 17 rainstrom process that occurred during 2007 and 2015,the characteristics of each level physical quantity field was counted, selecting 4 factors with clear physical meaning,such as precipitation,water vapor flux divergence, vertical velocity, and pseudo equivalent temperature which focus on the dynamic conditions, thermal conditions, water vapor supply, high and low altitude cooperation of rainstrom. By using the T639 numerical model and applying the "Partiing Method", 4 types of regional rainstorm process occured in 2016—2018 were done the falling area forcast for the substation. The results show that: the “Parting method” that based on the above classification research can better do the falling area forecast, the T639 numerical forecasting model has a good interpretation value.

关 键 词：区域暴雨 环流形势 物理量场 分型配料法 落区预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]