桂林恭城河栗木站实用水文预报  

Practical hydrologic forecast of Limu Hydrological Station on Gongcheng River in Guilin

作　　者：赵童 蒋灵芝 ZHAO Tong;JIANG Ling-zhi(Hydrology Center of Guilin City,Guilin 541000,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林水文中心水情科,广西桂林541000

出　　处：《广西水利水电》2023年第1期113-116,122,共5页Guangxi Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering

摘　　要：以桂林市恭城瑶族自治县栗木水文站为例,介绍了广西中小流域常用的水文预报方法,包括多元回归分析法、地貌单位线法、中国洪水预报系统、涨率分析法。通过比对各方案的特点、适用条件及预报合格率,结果表明:涨率分析法综合误差最小,地貌单位线法误差最大。而在实际应用中,多元回归方程预报方法使用最为广泛。Taking Limu Hydrological Station located at Gongcheng Yao Minority Autonomous County of Guilin City as example, an introduction was made on the hydrological forecasting methods commonly used in small and medium-sized river basins in Guangxi including multiple regression analysis, geomorphologic unit line method, China Flood Forecast System and water level rising rate analysis method. The characteristics, applicable conditions and forecast qualification rate of several schemes were compared. The results of comparison show the synthetic error of water level rising rate analysis method is the minimum, while geomorphologic unit line method renders the maximum error. The multivariate regression equation forecast method is used most widely in practical application.

关 键 词：水文预报 多元回归分析 地貌单位线 中国洪水预报系统 涨率分析法 栗木水文站 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]