基于梯度提升树的河南小麦成本收益分析  

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Wheat in Henan Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree

作　　者：温建[1] 曾一鸣 夏枫苒 汪松玉[1] 雷丽娟[1] WEN Jian;ZENG Yi-ming;XIA Feng-ran;WANG Song-yu;LEI Li-juan(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2022年第12期204-210,共7页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：河南高等学校重点科研项目(17A413007)。

摘　　要：基于2006—2020年河南省小麦生产数据,运用梯度提升树算法和文献分析法,分析了河南省小麦生产过程中成本和收益关系。结果表明:(1)2009—2019年的河南省小麦平均种植面积约占全国的23%,平均产量约占全国的27%。(2)通过对小麦生产过程中的总成本、总产值、净利润、成本利润率以及平均售价进行分析发现,2016—2020年小麦的净利润情况不容乐观,大部分为负值。(3)气候不适、病虫害等自然原因大幅增加了小麦生产的成本。(4)梯度提升树模型的结果显示,在影响小麦生产成本的因子中,人工成本占比最大。综上,提出了降低河南省小麦生产成本和提高其经济效益的建议和对策,即改善投入结构、规模化种植、依靠科技、降低生产成本、政府加大支持和投入力度。Based on the wheat production data data in Henan Province from 2006 to 2020,the gradient boosting decision tree algorithm method and literature analysis method were used to analyze relationship between costs and benefits in the process of wheat production in Henan Province.The results showed that:(1)The average planting area from 2009 to 2019 accounted for about 23%of the whole country,and the average output accounted for about 27%of the whole country.(2)Through the analysis of the total cost,the output value,profit,cost,profit margin,and the average selling price in the process of production of wheat,it was found that the net profit of wheat from 2016 to 2020 was not optimistic,most was negative.(3)Natural causes such as climate discomfort,pests and diseases greatly increased the cost of wheat production.(4)The results of gradient boosting decision tree model showed that among the factors affecting the wheat production costs,labor costs accounted for the most.In conclusion,suggestions and countermeasures were put forward to reduce the cost of wheat production in Henan Province and improve the economic benefit,such as improvement of the investment structure,large-scale planting,relying on science and technology,more government support and investment.

关 键 词：梯度提升树算法 小麦 成本收益 河南省 

分 类 号：F325.2[经济管理—产业经济]