基于冻土水文模拟的松花江流域水资源演变规律  

Evolution law of water resources in Songhua River basin based on hydrological simulation of frozen soil

作　　者：刘水清 周祖昊[1] 刘佳嘉[1] 李佳[2] 谢新民[1] 贾仰文[1] 王浩[1] LIU Shuiqing;ZHOU Zuhao;LIU Jiajia;LI Jia;XIE Xinmin;JIA Yangwen;WANG Hao(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basins,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Planning,Design and Administration Bureau of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]水利部南水北调规划设计管理局,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2023年第1期127-136,共10页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51679257);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(2012ZX07201-006)。

摘　　要：为分析松花江流域水资源的演变规律,基于寒区水-热-氮素循环模型(the water and energy transfer processes and nitrogen cycle processes model in cold regions,WEP-N)和水资源评价方法,对径流发生突变的1998年前后(即1999—2018年和1956—1998年)进行比较,松花江流域年水资源总量减少217.0亿m^(3),减幅达到22.2%。其中,地表水资源量减少是水资源总量减少的主要组分,占水资源总量减少的比例为96.9%,不重复地下水资源减少量占3.1%。基于多因子归因分析方法分析可知,气候变化是松花江流域水资源减少的主要因素,对松花江流域全年水资源总量、地表水资源量、不重复地下水资源量减少的贡献率分别为81.6%、74.9%、286.6%,取用水的贡献率分别为18.4%、25.1%、-86.6%。从年内不同时期分析可知,非冻融期是全年水资源量减少的主要时期,占全年水资源总量减少的82.6%,冻融期占17.4%。和北方的海河流域、黄河流域相比,水资源减少幅度和主要影响因素各不相同,主要取决于气候变化和人类活动强度变化幅度的不同。与位于华北和西北的两大流域海河流域和黄河流域对比,气候变化对松花江流域水资源衰减的影响与海河流域相当,明显大于黄河流域,而人类活动对松花江流域水资源衰减的影响明显小于两大流域。Under climate change and human activities, the evolution law of water resources in the Songhua River basin had changed drastically. Most of the existing studies were about the influence of climate change and human activities on the measured runoff, and few of them were concerned with the evolution law of surface and groundwater resources in the basin during the freeze-thaw period and the non-freeze-thaw period. In other cold regions with high-intensity human activities, the existing researchers also paid less attention to water resources.The water and energy transfer processes and nitrogen cycle processes model in cold regions(WEP-N) was used to model the water cycle in the Songhua River basin. Based on the WEP-N model, the monthly average surface discharge, soil discharge, base discharge, groundwater recharge, precipitation, and river evaporation of each subbasin in the basin were calculated. Water resources evaluation method, the surface water resources, non-repeated groundwater resources, and total water resources of the Songhua River basin were evaluated during the whole year,the freeze-thaw period, and the non-freeze-thaw period before and after 1998(1999-2018 and 1956-1998).The result showed that the annual total water resources, surface water resources, and non-overlapped groundwater resources in the Songhua River basin were 97.74 billion, 83.73 billion, and 1.40 billion m^(3) during the base period(1956-1998) and 76.04 billion, 62.70 billion and 1.33 billion m^(3) during the change period(1999-2018),respectively. Due to the change in climate and water consumption, the annual total water resources in the Songhua River basin decreased by 21.7 billion m^(3), with a rate of change of-22.2%. Among them, the decrease in surface water resources was 21.02 billion m^(3), with a rate of change of-25.1%. The reduction of non-overlapped groundwater resources was 0.68 million m^(3), with a rate of change of-4.9%. The decrease in the annual surface water resources accounted for 96.9% of the reduction of total water res

关 键 词：松花江流域 水资源 演变规律 冻土水文模拟 归因分析 

分 类 号：TV214[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]