以瓶颈为中心多层次负荷集成的订单交货期预测方法  

Bottleneck driven due-date forecasting method based on integration of multi-level workload

作　　者：钟柳艳 何华鑫 朱立夏 陈亚绒[1] Zhong Liuyan;He Huaxin;Zhu Lixia;Chen Yarong(College of Mechanical&Electronic Engineering,Wenzhou University,Wenzhou Zhejiang 325000,China)

机构地区：[1]温州大学机电工程学院,浙江温州325000

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2023年第3期849-854,共6页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51705370,51905196)。

摘　　要：针对MTO(make-to-order)生产环境下的订单交货期预测问题,提出了一种集成订单接收、订单投放与车间调度等多层次负荷,以瓶颈为中心的订单交货期预测(bottleneck driven due-date forecasting, BDDF)方法。该方法先根据订单是否通过瓶颈,分类估计“鼓链”与“非鼓链”订单在不同层次的负荷,同时利用Little’s法则估计各个层次的通过时间,求和得到订单的交货期。运用FlexSim建模仿真比较了BDDF方法与两种经典交货期预测方法在不同订单池排序规则、车间调度规则以及保护产能水平组合下的系统绩效。结果表明,BDDF方法在拖期率、平均拖期以及延期标准差指标上均优于两种经典方法。同时,订单池排序规则、调度规则以及保护产能水平都会影响BDDF方法的系统绩效,需要根据实际情况选择合适的参数,以更好地控制订单交货期,避免订单延期。Aiming at the problem of due-date forecasting for make-to-order production environment, this paper proposed a forecasting method namely BDDF,which integrated multi-level workloads such as order accept, order release and workshop scheduling.This method first estimated the workload of “drum-chain” and “non-drum chain” orders at different levels according to whether the order passed through the bottleneck, and then estimated the throughput time of each level by using Little’s law to sum and predict the due-date of the order.This paper used the FlexSim modeling and simulation to compare the system performance of BDDF method and two classical due-date prediction methods under different sequencing rules in the pre-shop, dispatching rules in the workshop, and protective capacity for the bottleneck.The results show that the BDDF method is superior to the classical methods in terms of mean tardy rate, mean tardy and standard deviation of lateness.At the same time, pre-shop sequencing rules, scheduling rules and protective capacity all affect the performance of BDDF method.It is necessary to select appropriate value according to the actual situation to better control the order due-date and avoid order delay.

关 键 词：负荷控制 交货期预测 一般流水车间 FLEXSIM 约束理论 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]