基于分布式电源出力独立随机性的配电网随机潮流算法  

Probabilistic Load Flow Algorithm of Distribution Network Considering Correlation Characteristic of Multi-type DGs

作　　者：王玥娇 郭俊山 王辉[2] 田珊也 蒿天衢 张兴友 WANG Yuejiao;GUO Junshan;WANG Hui;TIAN Shanye;HAO Tianqu;ZHANG Xingyou(State Grid Shandong Electric Power Research Institute,Jinan 250003,China;Shandong University,Jinan 250016,China)

机构地区：[1]国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院,山东济南250003 [2]山东大学,山东济南250016

出　　处：《山东电力技术》2023年第2期1-6,共6页Shandong Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51107068);山东电力研究院自主研发项目“中长期边界条件不确定性的综合能源系统多目标优化研究”(ZY-2020-03)。

摘　　要：各类型分布式发电(Distributed Generations,DGs)出力均存在显著的随机性和相关性特征。针对配电网中日益增加的分散式风力发电和分布式光伏发电,提出一种计及DGs出力随机性和相关性的三点估计随机潮流(Probabilistic Load Flow,PLF)计算方法。该方法基于三阶多项式的正态变换,对非正态多维随机变量的相关性进行数学表征和转换处理,将其转换为独立非正态多维随机变量,利用蒙特卡洛或三点估计方法求出估计值,由确定性潮流进行计算,进一步通过Gram-Charlier级数展开,拟合各支路的有功功率及对应节点电压的概率密度和分布曲线。该方法能够实现输入随机变量的解耦求解,有效提升计算效率和准确性。仿真算例结果验证了算法的正确性,为含高比例分布式发电的配电网的运行规划提供有效参考。The output of all types of distributed generations(DGs)has significant randomness and correlation characteristics.Considering the increasing penetration of distributed wind power and photovoltaic power in distribution network,a three-point probabilistic load flow(PLF)calculation method considering the randomness and correlation characteristics of DGs output was proposed.The correlation of non-normal multidimensional random variables was mathematically characterized and transformed into independent non-normal multidimensional random variables based on the normal transformation of third-order polynomials.The estimated values were obtained by Monte Carlo or three-point estimation,and then calculated by deterministic power flow.Furthermore,the probability density and distribution curve of active power and corresponding node voltage of each branch were fitted by Gram-Charlie series expansion method.The proposed method realizes the independent solution of input random variables,and effectively improves the efficiency and accuracy of calculation. The accuracy of the algorithm was verified by numerical simulation,which provides an effective reference for the planning and operation of distribution network with high penetration of distributed generation.

关 键 词：分布式发电 相关性 多项式正态变换 随机潮流 配电网 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]