台风“梅花”(2212)的主要特点和路径预报难点分析  

Analysis on main characteristics of Typhoon Muifa(2212)and difficulties in its track forecast

作　　者：王皘 钱传海 董林 向纯怡 许映龙 张玲 李勋[3] WANG Qian;QIAN Chuanhai;DONG Lin;XIANG Chunyi;XU Yinglong;ZHANG Ling;LI Xun(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2023年第1期52-62,共11页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41930972,42175007);海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金项目(SCSF202001);环渤海区域海洋气象联合基金项目(QYXM202205)。

摘　　要：对2022年第12号台风“梅花”的主要特点、路径预报难点问题和路径预报误差特征进行分析,研究主要结论显示:(1)“梅花”登陆次数多、登陆强度强,是首个4次登陆不同省(市)的台风,也是2022年最强登陆台风,造成华东与东北地区长时间、大范围的风雨影响。(2)台风生成初期的中长期时效路径预报是路径预报难点之一,模式对台风主要影响系统的长时效预报存在明显偏差,针对模式的及时检验和订正对预报调整非常重要。(3)双台风或多涡旋情景下,集合预报发散度大,“梅花”陆上路径预报偏西偏慢,其东侧“南玛都”的强度和位置差异对其路径有明显影响。(4)台风变性过程中的移速误差是路径预报极大误差的来源,关注台风是否处于变性过程可作为调整台风移速预报的参考。未来开展多模式交叉实时检验,基于集合预报研发针对转向变性台风路径预报订正技术可为主观预报提供支撑。The main characteristics of Typhoon Muifa(2212),the difficulties in the track forecast,and the characteristics of forecast errors are analyzed in this paper.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)Typhoon Muifa,characterized by high landfall frequency and strong intensity,is the first typhoon to make landfall 4 times in different provinces(cities),and is the strongest landfalling typhoon in 2022,causing long-lasting and wide-range wind and rainfall in East China and Northeast China.(2)The medium-to long-term track forecast in the early stage of typhoon lifetime is one of the difficulties in track forecast,and there is obvious deviation between the model results and observations in the long-term forecast of the dominated weather systems that impact typhoon,so timely inspection and correction of the model is very important for the forecast adjustment.(3)Under the scenario of binary typhoons or multi-vortex,the dispersion of the ensemble forecast is large,and the track forecast over land for Muifa is slower and westward compared with the observation.The intensity and position differences of Typhoon Nanmadol on the east side have a significant impact on the track of Muifa.(4)The along-track error in the process of extratropical transition is the primary source of track forecast error,especially for the maximum error.Paying attention to whether the typhoon is undergoing extratropical transition or not can be a reference for adjusting the moving speed in the track forecast.In the future,conducting multi-model cross-cutting and real-time inspection and developing a correction technology for the track forecast of recurved extratropical transition typhoons based on ensemble forecast could support for subjective forecast.

关 键 词：台风“梅花” 路径预报误差 预报难点 双台风 变性 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.124