省域新能源与电网发展差异的时空格局演变  

Temporal and Spatial Pattern Evolution of Provincial New Energy and Power Grid Development Differences

作　　者：花秀峰 李婉莹 富丽娟 刘晶 董福贵[2] HUA Xiufeng;LI Wanying;FU Lijuan;LIU Jing;DONG Fugui(State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100095,China;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]国核电力规划设计研究院有限公司,北京100095 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《广东电力》2023年第2期33-41,共9页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY074)。

摘　　要：电网侧是实现新能源在更大范围内消纳的关键,新能源和电网协同发展成为必然趋势。基于省域空间单元,采用核密度估计方法,对新能源和电网发展的基本特征进行分析。通过马尔科夫链与空间马尔科夫链方法,分别从时间角度和空间角度对新能源和电网发展的格局演变进行分析。最后,基于密度峰(density peak,DP)聚类算法,从新能源发展和电网发展2个维度对31个省级行政区(简称“省份”)进行区域划分。研究结果表明:2015—2019年风电装机容量和变电设备容量呈单峰分布;新能源发展的空间格局变动较大,电网的发展相对稳定;新能源发展的空间趋同变化较电网发展的空间趋同变化更明显。采用DP聚类算法可将31个省份划分为7类,并据此提出具有针对性的新能源发展建议。The grid side is the key to realize new energy consumption on a larger scale,and the coordinated development of new energy and the grid has become an inevitable trend.Based on the provincial spatial unit,the nuclear density estimation method is used to analyze the basic characteristics of the development of new energy and power grid.By means of the Markov chain and spatial Markov chain methods,this paper analyzes the evolution of new energy and power grid development pattern from time and space perspectives respectively.Finally,based on the density peak(DP)clustering algorithm,31 provinces are divided into regions from two dimensions of new energy development and power grid development.The research results show that the installed capacities of wind power and substation equipment show a single-peak distribution from 2015 to 2019.The spatial pattern of new energy development changes greatly,and the development of power grids is relatively stable.The spatial convergence of new energy development is more obvious than that of power grid development.The DP clustering algorithm can divide 31 provinces into 7 categories,and targeted new energy development suggestions are put forward accordingly.

关 键 词：新能源 电网 核密度 空间马尔科夫链 密度峰聚类 时空格局 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM614TM615