新绿色贸易壁垒:欧盟碳边境调节机制对中国纺织服装行业发展的影响  

New green trade barriers: the impact of EU carbon border adjustment mechanism on the development of China’s textile and garment industry

作　　者：刘夏青 梁本凡[1,3] 丁晓涵 LIU Xia-qing;Liang Ben-fan;DING Xiao-han(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488;Fifth Institute of Service-oriented Manufacturing,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China,Beijing 100041;Research Institute for Eco-civilization,CASS,Beijing 100710;Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]工业和信息化部电子第五研究所服务型制造研究院战略部,北京100041 [3]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京100710 [4]北京林业大学,北京100083

出　　处：《价格月刊》2023年第3期23-31,共9页

基　　金：工业和信息化部课题项目“工业节能诊断数据分析”(编号:MIB2220217550)。

摘　　要：欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)立法进程加速,已公布法案尚未涉及纺织服装行业,但从长期看,中国纺织服装行业出口规模大,对外依赖度高,极易受到新“绿色贸易壁垒”的冲击。通过建立投入产出(IO)隐含碳排放核算模型,测算出不同情景下,欧盟碳边境调节机制CBAM给中国纺织服装行业所带来的额外税负。在此基础上,利用可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),评估了该政策的实施效果。研究结果发现,在欧盟CBAM仅针对中国纺织服装行业的情境下,会导致中国GDP的微弱下降,国民福利也将受到影响,中国纺织服装行业的发展受到抑制,随碳关税增加,受到影响变大。其中,服装行业中小企业的融资成本将进一步增加,叠加碳边界调节机制的交易成本提升,将进一步威胁中小企业的生存和发展。The legislative process of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM) has been accelerated,and the published legislation has not yet covered the textile and garment industry. However, in the long term,China’s textile and garment industry has a large export scale and high external dependence, which is vulnerable to the impact of the new “green trade barrier”. This paper calculates the additional tax burden on China’s textile and garment industry brought by the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM) under different circumstances by establishing an input-output(IO) implicit carbon emission accounting model. On this basis, it uses the computable general equilibrium model(CGE) to evaluate the implementation effect of the policy. The research results show that under the situation that EU CBAM only targets at China’s textile and garment industry,it will lead to a slight decline in China’s GDP, and the national welfare will also be affected. The development of China’s textile and garment industry will be restrained, and the impact will become greater with the increase of carbon tariff. Among them, the financing cost of small and medium-sized enterprises in the garment industry will further increase, and the transaction cost of superimposed carbon boundary adjustment mechanism will increase, which will further threaten the survival and development of small and medium-sized enterprises.

关 键 词：欧盟碳边境调节机制 纺织服装业 投入产出模型 一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]