2005—2019年中国居民道路交通伤害死亡率的时间趋势:年龄-时期-队列分析  

Temporal trends of road traffic injury mortality among Chinese residents from 2005 to 2019:age-period-cohort analysis

作　　者：犹忆 马原 李德俊 刘川 YOU Yi;MA Yuan;LI De-jun;LIU Chuan(Chongqing Dazu District People’s Hospital,Chongqing 402360,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]重庆市大足区人民医院,重庆402360 [2]四川大学华西第二医院 [3]重庆市大足区疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第4期597-603,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：重庆市区域医学重点学科建设项目(zdxk201606)。

摘　　要：目的分析2005—2019年中国居民道路交通伤害死亡风险的趋势变化,旨在为制定相关防控策略提供依据。方法以5~84岁的居民为研究对象,采用年龄-时期-队列模型(age-period-cohort,APC)与内生因子估算法(Intrinsic Estimator,IE)估计道路交通伤害死亡风险的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。结果城市与农村居民道路交通伤害死亡率分别由2005年的9.14/10万、7.09/10万升至2019年的10.61/10万、16.35/10万。APC模型估计显示,居民道路交通伤害死亡风险随年龄的增加而上升,城市与农村80~84岁居民相较于10~14岁居民死亡风险分别增加约5.69倍、6.78倍。时期效应随年份快速上升,2015—2019年城市与农村居民死亡风险比2005—2009年分别增加1.60倍、1.67倍。出生队列效应呈现先升后降趋势,1963—1967年出生的城市与农村居民死亡风险比2008—2012年出生的分别增加5.30倍、4.26倍。结论中国城乡居民道路交通伤害死亡风险具有年龄差异,时期效应带来的影响不容忽视。此外,出生年代越晚的居民,其死亡风险越低。Objective To analyze the trend of road traffic injury death risk of Chinese residents from 2005 to 2019,and to provide a basis strategies for formulating relevant prevention and control.Methods Residents aged 5 to 84 years were selected as the research subjects,and age-period-cohort(APC)and Intrinsic Estimator(IE)were used to estimate the age,period and birth cohort effects of mortality risk of road traffic injury.Results The road traffic injury death rate of urban and rural residents increased from 9.14/100000 and 7.09/100000 in 2005 to 10.61/100000 and 16.35/100000 in 2019,respectively.The APC model estimated that the death risk of road traffic injury increased with age.Compared with residents aged 10 to 14,urban and rural residents aged 80 to 84 had an approximately 5.69-fold and 6.78-fold increase in death risk.The period effect increased rapidly each year,and the mortality risk of urban and rural residents in 2015 to 2019 increased by 1.60 times and 1.67 times respectively compared with 2005 to 2009.The birth cohort effect showed a trend of rising first and then falling.The mortality risk of urban and rural residents born in 1963 to 1967 increased by 5.30 times and 4.26 times,respectively,compared with those born in 2008 to 2012.Conclusion There are age differences in the death risk of road traffic injury among urban and rural residents in China,and the impact of the period effect cannot be ignored.In addition,the later residents born,the lower risk of death they have.

关 键 词：道路交通伤害 死亡风险 年龄-时期-队列模型 内生因子估算法 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R181.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]